IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednsr/120.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial market implications of the federal debt paydown

Author

Listed:
  • Michael J. Fleming

Abstract

U.S. Treasury securities fill several crucial roles in financial markets: they are a risk-free benchmark, a reference and hedging benchmark, and a reserve asset to the Federal Reserve and other financial institutions. Many of the features that make the Treasury market an attractive benchmark and reserve asset are likely to be adversely affected by the paydown of the federal debt, and recent developments suggest that this may be happening already. Market participants are responding by moving away from Treasuries as a reference and hedging benchmark toward agency debt securities, corporate debt securities, and interest rate swaps. The Federal Reserve is taking steps to adjust its portfolio and should be able to do so with minimal implications for monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael J. Fleming, 2001. "Financial market implications of the federal debt paydown," Staff Reports 120, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:120
    Note: For a published version of this report, see Michael J. Fleming, "Financial Market Implications of the Federal Debt Paydown," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no.2 (2000): 221-51.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr120.html
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr120.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Bennett & Kenneth Garbade & John Kambhu, 1999. "Enhancing the Liquidity of U.S. Treasury Securities in an Era of Surpluses," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-083, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    2. Marc R. Saidenberg & Philip E. Strahan, 1999. "Are banks still important for financing large businesses?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 5(Jul).
    3. Michael J. Fleming, 2000. "The benchmark U.S. Treasury market: recent performance and possible alternatives," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 129-145.
    4. Auerbach, Alan J. & Gale, William G., 2000. "Perspectives on the Budget Surplus," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 53(3), pages 459-472, September.
    5. N/A, 1996. "Note:," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 31(1-2), pages 1-1, January.
    6. Duffee, Gregory R, 1996. "Idiosyncratic Variation of Treasury Bill Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 527-551, June.
    7. Michael J. Fleming, 1997. "The round-the-clock market for U.S. Treasury securities," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Jul), pages 9-32.
    8. Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Special Repo Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 493-526, June.
    9. Dominique Dupont & Brian P. Sack, 1999. "The Treasury securities market: overview and recent development," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Dec, pages 785-806.
    10. Kenneth Barbade & Paul Bennett & John Kambhu, 2000. "Enhancing the liquidity of U.S. Treasury securities in an era of surpluses," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 89-119.
    11. Frank M. Keane, 1996. "Repo rate patterns for new Treasury notes," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Sep).
    12. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1991. "Liquidity, Maturity, and the Yields on U.S. Treasury Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1411-1425, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fleming, Michael J. & Garbade, Kenneth D., 2007. "Dealer behavior in the specials market for US Treasury securities," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 204-228, April.
    2. Michael Kumhof & Evan C Tanner, 2005. "Government Debt; A Key Role in Financial Intermediation," IMF Working Papers 2005/057, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Henning Bohn, 2011. "The Economic Consequences of Rising U.S. Government Debt: Privileges at Risk," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 67(3), pages 282-302, September.
    4. Iryna V. Ivaschenko & Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2001. "Corporate Bond Risk and Real Activity; An Empirical Analysis of Yield Spreads and Their Systematic Components," IMF Working Papers 2001/158, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Michael J. Fleming & Kenneth D. Garbade, 2004. "Repurchase agreements with negative interest rates," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 10(Apr).
    6. Claudio E. V. Borio, 2004. "Market distress and vanishing liquidity: anatomy and policy options," BIS Working Papers 158, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Orazio Mastroeni, 2001. "Pfandbrief-style products in Europe," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The changing shape of fixed income markets: a collection of studies by central bank economists, volume 5, pages 44-66, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Michael J. Fleming & Kenneth D. Garbade, 2005. "Explaining settlement fails," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 11(Sep).
    9. Roberto Blanco, 2002. "Euro area government securities markets: recent developments and implications for market functioning," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 65-85, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. David Goldreich & Bernd Hanke & Purnendu Nath, 2005. "The Price of Future Liquidity: Time-Varying Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-32, March.
    11. Study group on fixed income markets, 2001. "The changing shape of fixed income markets," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The changing shape of fixed income markets: a collection of studies by central bank economists, volume 5, pages 1-43, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Kenneth D. Garbade & John Kambhu, 2005. "Why is the U.S. Treasury contemplating becoming a lender of last resort for Treasury securities?," Staff Reports 223, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Brutti, Filippo, 2011. "Sovereign defaults and liquidity crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 65-72, May.
    14. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Common determinants of bond and stock market liquidity: the impact of financial crises, monetary policy, and mutual fund flows," Staff Reports 141, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    15. the Study group on fixed income markets, 2001. "The changing shape of fixed income markets," BIS Working Papers 104, Bank for International Settlements.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fleming, Michael J, 2002. "Are Larger Treasury Issues More Liquid? Evidence from Bill Reopenings," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 707-735, August.
    2. Kenneth D. Garbade & Matthew Rutherford, 2007. "Buybacks in Treasury cash and debt management," Staff Reports 304, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Michael J. Fleming, 2003. "Measuring treasury market liquidity," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 83-108.
    4. Kenneth Barbade & Paul Bennett & John Kambhu, 2000. "Enhancing the liquidity of U.S. Treasury securities in an era of surpluses," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 89-119.
    5. Graveline, Jeremy J. & McBrady, Matthew R., 2011. "Who makes on-the-run Treasuries special?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 620-632, October.
    6. Andrei Kapaev, 2013. "Remark on repo and options," Papers 1311.5211, arXiv.org.
    7. Baba, Naohiko & Inamura, Yasunari, 2004. "The Japanese Repo Market: Theory and Evidence," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 22(1), pages 65-90, March.
    8. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & de Jong, Frank & Widijanto, Daniel, 2016. "Price effects of sovereign debt auctions in the euro-zone: The role of the crisis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 30-53.
    9. Patricia S. Pollard, 2001. "The creation of the Euro and the role of the dollar in international markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(May), pages 17-36.
    10. Fleming, Michael J. & Garbade, Kenneth D., 2007. "Dealer behavior in the specials market for US Treasury securities," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 204-228, April.
    11. Michael J. Fleming & Kenneth D. Garbade, 2005. "Explaining settlement fails," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 11(Sep).
    12. Michael J. Fleming & Kenneth D. Garbade, 2004. "Repurchase agreements with negative interest rates," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 10(Apr).
    13. David Goldreich & Bernd Hanke & Purnendu Nath, 2005. "The Price of Future Liquidity: Time-Varying Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-32, March.
    14. Kenneth D. Garbade & John Kambhu, 2005. "Why is the U.S. Treasury contemplating becoming a lender of last resort for Treasury securities?," Staff Reports 223, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    15. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
    16. Challe, Edouard & Le Grand, François & Ragot, Xavier, 2013. "Incomplete markets, liquidation risk, and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2483-2519.
    17. Dong Lou & Hongjun Yan & Jinfan Zhang, 2013. "Anticipated and Repeated Shocks in Liquid Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(8), pages 1891-1912.
    18. Brian P. Sack, 2000. "Using Treasury STRIPS to measure the yield curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2013. "Flow and stock effects of large-scale treasury purchases: Evidence on the importance of local supply," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 425-448.
    20. Gale, William G. & Potter, Samara R., 2002. "An Economic Evaluation of the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 55(1), pages 133-186, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Treasury market; benchmark; reserve asset; liquidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.