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Real effects of monetary policy in a world economy

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  • Preston J. Miller
  • Richard M. Todd

Abstract

We present a 2-country model with heterogeneous agents in which changes in a country?s monetary policy affect real interest rates, relative prices of traded and nontraded goods and real exchange rates. Nontransitory real effects of monetary policy stem solely from a friction (country-specific reserve requirements) that generates separate demands for a country?s money and bonds. Without violating the classical assumptions of individual rationality and flexible prices, the model?s implications seem qualitatively in accord with the U.S. experience of the 1980s: a monetary policy tightening leading to a rise in the real interest rate and to an initial rise in the real value of the dollar which is subsequently reversed. In the model a monetary policy change leads to different welfare effects for agents born at different times, living in different countries, or participating on different sides of a market. The welfare of some agents can be affected more by relative price changes than by real interest rate changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Preston J. Miller & Richard M. Todd, 1992. "Real effects of monetary policy in a world economy," Staff Report 154, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:154
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Preston J. Miller, 1982. "Fiscal policy in a monetarist model," Staff Report 67, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    2. David Orden, 1986. "A Critique of Exchange Rate Treatment in Agricultural Trade Models: Comment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(4), pages 990-993.
    3. Aizenman, Joshua, 1983. "A theory of current account and exchange rate determinations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 261-280, September.
    4. Ayse Imrohoroglu & Edward C. Prescott, 1991. "Evaluating the welfare effects of alternative monetary arrangements," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 15(Sum), pages 3-10.
    5. Rotemberg, Julio J., 1985. "Money and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 141-160, August.
    6. Preston J. Miller & Neil Wallace, 1985. "International coordination of macroeconomic policies: a welfare analysis," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 9(Spr).
    7. Jeremy Greenwood, 1984. "Non-traded Goods, the Trade Balance, and the Balance of Payments," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 806-823, November.
    8. Frenkel, Jacob A & Razin, Assaf, 1986. "Fiscal Policies in the World Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 564-594, June.
    9. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1984. "The Lucas Critique and the Volcker Deflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 211-215, May.
    10. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    11. Miller, Preston J & Roberds, William T, 1991. "The Quantitative Significance of the Lucas Critique: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 389-389, October.
    12. R. Dornbusch, 1975. "Exchange Rate Dynamics," Working papers 167, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    13. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1986. "Expectations and Commodity Price Dynamics: The Overshooting Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(2), pages 344-348.
    14. Michael J. Stutzer, 1985. "The statewide economic impact of small-issue industrial revenue bonds," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 9(Spr).
    15. Orden, David, 2002. "Exchange Rate Effects on Agricultural Trade," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(2), pages 303-312, August.
    16. Miller, Preston J & Roberds, William T, 1991. "The Quantitative Significance of the Lucas Critique," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 361-387, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chin, Daniel M. & Miller, Preston J., 1998. "Fixed vs. floating exchange rates: A dynamic general equilibrium analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(7), pages 1221-1249, July.
    2. Miller, Preston J. & Todd, Richard M., 1995. "Real effects of monetary policy in a world economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 125-153.
    3. Geza, Paula & Giurca Vasilescu, Laura, 2011. "Bretton Woods Fixed Exchange Rate System versus Floating Exchange Rate System," MPRA Paper 29932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Daniel M. Chin & Preston J. Miller, 1995. "Fixed vs. floating exchange rates: a dynamic general equilibrium analysis," Staff Report 194, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

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