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How did the 2003 dividend tax cut affect stock prices?

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Abstract

We test the hypothesis that the 2003 dividend tax cut boosted U.S. stock prices and thus lowered the cost of equity. Using an event- study methodology, we attempt to identify an aggregate stock market effect by comparing the behavior of U.S. common stock prices to that of European stocks and real estate investment trusts. We also examine the relative cross-sectional response of prices on high-dividend versus low-dividend paying stocks. We do not find any imprint of the dividend tax cut news on the value of the aggregate U.S. stock market. On the other hand, high-dividend stocks outperformed low-dividend stocks by a few percentage points over the event windows, suggesting that the tax cut did induce asset reallocation within equity portfolios. Finally, the positive abnormal returns on non-dividend paying U.S. stocks in 2003 do not appear to be tied to tax-cut news.

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  • Gene Amromin & Paul Harrison & Steven A. Sharpe, 2006. "How did the 2003 dividend tax cut affect stock prices?," Working Paper Series WP-06-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-06-17
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    Cited by:

    1. Maul, D. & Schiereck, D., 2017. "The bond event study methodology since 1974," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 80723, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    2. Chay, J.B. & Chong, Byung-Uk & Im, Hyun Joong, 2023. "Dividend taxes and investment efficiency: Evidence from the 2003 U.S. personal taxation reform," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1).
    3. Kang, Minwook & Ye, Lei Sandy, 2023. "Dividend and corporate income taxation with present-biased consumers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    4. Clemens Sialm, 2006. "Investment Taxes and Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 12146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Erin E. Syron Ferris, 2015. "Dividend Taxes and Stock Volatility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Masanori Orihara, 2023. "Election-Day Market Reactions to Tax Proposals: Evidence from a Close Vote," Working Papers 2219, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    7. Richard H. Fosberg, 2012. "The Corporate Effects of Personal Taxation," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 2(1), pages 1-8, February.
    8. Alan J. Auerbach & Kevin A. Hassett, 2006. "Dividend Taxes and Firm Valuation: New Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 119-123, May.
    9. Josef García Blandón & M?nica Martínez Blasco & Josef Argiles Bosch, 2011. "Ex-Dividend Day Returns when Dividend and Capital Gains are Taxed at the Same Rate," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(2), pages 140-152, June.
    10. Atsushi Chino & Joon Ho Kim, 2022. "Does dividend policy affect sales growth in product markets? Evidence from the 2003 dividend tax cut," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(2), pages 539-571, June.
    11. Jolana Stejskalova, 2016. "Impact of the information on tax burden on the stock market," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2016-62, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    12. Jeffrey R. Brown & Nellie Liang & Scott Weisbenner, 2007. "Executive Financial Incentives and Payout Policy: Firm Responses to the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1935-1965, August.
    13. David G. Kenchington, 2019. "Does a change in dividend tax rates in the U.S. affect equity prices of non-U.S. stocks?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 593-628, June.
    14. Borgonovo, E. & Gatti, S. & Peccati, L., 2010. "What drives value creation in investment projects? An application of sensitivity analysis to project finance transactions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 227-236, August.
    15. Lin, Leming & Flannery, Mark J., 2013. "Do personal taxes affect capital structure? Evidence from the 2003 tax cut," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 549-565.
    16. Jesse Edgerton, 2013. "Four facts about dividend payouts and the 2003 tax cut," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(5), pages 769-784, October.
    17. Anthony M. Diercks & William Waller, 2017. "Taxes and the Fed : Theory and Evidence from Equities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Barclay, Michael J. & Heitzman, Shane M. & Smith, Clifford W., 2013. "Debt and taxes: Evidence from the real estate industry," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 74-93.
    19. Yishuang Xu & Chung Yim Yiu, 2017. "The Impacts of Tax Reforms on REITs. An International Empirical Study," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 3(1), pages 11-22, March.
    20. Richard H. Fosberg, 2012. "The Corporate Effects of Personal Taxation," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-8, February.
    21. Winter, Christoph & Kraus, Beatrice, 2016. "Do Tax Changes Affect Credit Markets and Financial Frictions? Evidence from Credit Spreads," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145636, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    22. Jesse Edgerton, 2010. "Effects of the 2003 dividend tax cut: evidence from real estate investment trusts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Erin E. Syron Ferris, 2018. "Dividend taxes and stock volatility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(2), pages 377-403, April.
    24. Jolana Stejskalová, 2017. "The Impact of Attention to News about Tax Changes on the Stock Market," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 65(6), pages 2113-2121.
    25. Andrew C. Chang, 2018. "Nothing is Certain Except Death and Taxes : The Lack of Policy Uncertainty from Expiring \"Temporary\" Taxes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-041, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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