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Money growth rules and price level determinacy

Author

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  • Charles T. Carlstrom
  • Timothy S. Fuerst

Abstract

The authors show that in a plausibly calibrated monetary model with explicit production, exogenous money growth rules ensure real determinacy and thus avoid sunspot fluctuations. Although it is theoretically possible to construct examples in which real indeterminacy does arise, these examples rely on implausible money-demand elasticities or ignore the effect of production on the model’s dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2000. "Money growth rules and price level determinacy," Working Paper 0010, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0010
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michener, Ronald & Ravikumar, B., 1998. "Chaotic dynamics in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1117-1137, May.
    2. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 285-298, April.
    3. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Jess Benhabib & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 167-186, March.
    4. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Real Indeterminacy in Monetary Models with Nominal Interest Rate Distortions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(4), pages 767-789, October.
    5. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-748, September.
    6. Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 345-380.
    7. Feenstra, Robert C., 1986. "Functional equivalence between liquidity costs and the utility of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 271-291, March.
    8. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1979. "On Models of Money and Perfect Foresight," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(1), pages 83-103, February.
    9. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 675-687, August.
    10. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93.
    11. Roger E. A. Farmer, 1999. "Macroeconomics of Self-fulfilling Prophecies, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062038, May.
    12. Fukuda, Shin-ichi, 1993. "The emergence of equilibrium cycles in a monetary economy with a separable utility function," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 321-334, November.
    13. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1991. "Endogenous Price Fluctuations in an Optimizing Model of a Monetary Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1617-1631, November.
    14. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Stokey, Nancy L, 1987. "Money and Interest in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 491-513, May.
    15. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1986. "Ruling out divergent speculative bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 349-362, May.
    16. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2000. "Forward-looking versus backward-looking Taylor rules," Working Paper 0009, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    17. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1990. "Sunspot equilibria (rational bubbles) in a model of money-in-the-utility-function," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 137-144, January.
    18. Svensson, Lars E O, 1985. "Money and Asset Prices in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(5), pages 919-944, October.
    19. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bosi, Stefano & Magris, Francesco, 2003. "Indeterminacy and endogenous fluctuations with arbitrarily small liquidity constraint," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 39-51, March.
    2. Christian A. Stoltenberg, 2012. "Real Balance Effects, Timing, and Equilibrium Determination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(5), pages 981-994, August.
    3. Stephane Auray & Fabrice Collard & Patrick Feve, 2005. "Habit Persistence, Money Growth Rule and Real Indeterminacy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(1), pages 48-67, January.
    4. Schabert, Andreas & Stoltenberg, Christian, 2005. "Money Demand and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 4974, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Andreas Schabert, 2006. "Central Bank Instruments, Fiscal Policy Regimes, and the Requirements for Equilibrium Determinacy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(4), pages 742-762, October.
    6. Bosi, Stefano & Ismael, Mohanad & Venditti, Alain, 2016. "Collateral and growth cycles with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 327-350.
    7. Scott Baier & Charles T. Carlstrom & Ralph Chami & Thomas Cosimano & Timothy Fuerst & Connel Fullenkamp, 2003. "Capital Trading, Stock Trading, and the Inflation Tax on Equity: A Note," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 987-990, October.
    8. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Real Indeterminacy in Monetary Models with Nominal Interest Rate Distortions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(4), pages 767-789, October.
    9. Barbar, Riham & Bosi, Stefano, 2010. "Collaterals and macroeconomic volatility," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 146-161, September.
    10. Andreas Schabert, 2003. "On the Relevance of Open Market Operations," Working Paper Series in Economics 4, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.
    11. Stefano Bosi & Francesco Magris & Alain Venditti, 2003. "Indeterminacy in a Cash-in-Advance Two-Sector Economy," Documents de recherche 03-04, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    12. Bosi, Stefano & Nishimura, Kazuo & Venditti, Alain, 2010. "Multiple equilibria in two-sector monetary economies: An interplay between preferences and the timing for money," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 997-1014, November.
    13. Lioui, Abraham & Rangvid, Jesper, 2007. "Habit persistence in consumption and the demand for money," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 168-176, August.
    14. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2004. "Learning and the central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 327-338, March.
    15. Ibrahim Chowdhury & Andreas Schabert, "undated". "Assessing Money Supply Rules," Working Papers 2003_9, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised May 2003.
    16. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2002:i:2:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Bosi, Stefano & Dufourt, Frédéric, 2008. "Indeterminacy with constant money growth rules and income-based liquidity constraints," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 57-63, June.
    18. Schabert, Andreas, 2009. "Money supply, macroeconomic stability, and the implementation of interest rate targets," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 333-344, June.
    19. repec:spr:joecth:v:64:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s00199-016-0969-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Maik Heinemann, 2003. "Indeterminacy and interest rate rules: The role of fiscal policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 55, Society for Computational Economics.

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    Keywords

    Demand for money ; Monetary policy;

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