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An overview of some historical brazilian macroeconomic series and some open questions

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  • Cysne, Rubens Penha

Abstract

This paper presents an overview of the Brazilian macroeconomy by analyzing the evolution of some specific time series. The presentation is made through a sequence of graphs. Several remarkable historical points and open questions come up in the data. These include, among others, the drop in output growth as of 1980, the clear shift from investments to government current expenditures which started in the beginning of the 80s, the notable way how money, prices and exchange rate correlate in an environment of permanently high inflation, the historical coexistence of high rates of growth and high rates of inflation, as well as the drastic increase of the velocity of circulation of money between the 70s and the mid-90s. It is also shown that, although net external liabilities have increased substantially in current dollars after the Real Plan, its ratio with respect to exports in 2004 is practically the same as the one existing in 1986; and that residents in Brazil, in average, owed two more months of their final income (GNP) to abroad between 1995-2004 than they did between 1990 and 1994. Variance decompositions show that money has been important to explain prices, but not output (GDP).

Suggested Citation

  • Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2005. "An overview of some historical brazilian macroeconomic series and some open questions," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 592, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:592
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Braun, Steven N, 1990. "Estimation of Current-Quarter Gross National Product by Pooling Preliminary Labor-Market Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 293-304, July.
    2. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, January.
    4. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 1985. "Moeda Indexada," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 39(1), January.
    5. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aloisio Araujo & Mario Pascoa & Juan Pablo Torres-Martinez, 2005. "Bubbles, collateral and monetary equilibrium," Textos para discussão 513, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    2. Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar & Terra, Maria Cristina T., 2005. "Special interests and political business cycles," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 597, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    3. Monteiro, Paulo Klinger, 2009. "First-price auction symmetric equilibria with a general distribution," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 256-269, January.
    4. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2006. "An intra-household approach to the welfare costs of inflation (Revised Version, Forthcoming 2006, Estudos Econômicos)," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 612, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    5. Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Watanuki, Masakazu, 2006. "Integration options for mercosul - an investigation Uusing the AMIDA Model," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 610, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    6. Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2006. "Income inequality in a job-search model with heterogeneous discount factors: (revised version, forthcoming 2006, Revista Economia)," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 611, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).

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