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The Economics of Scaling Early Childhood Programs: Lessons from The Chicago School

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  • John List

Abstract

Many ideas show remarkable returns in small-scale trials but often disappoint when scaled to broader populations and contexts. Using early childhood investment as a case study, this study develops a dynamic human capital formation model that integrates complementary skill investment with "Option C thinking" on scaling challenges. The model is stylized in the Chicago tradition: micro-founded with optimizing agents, dynamic skill production, and a policymaker evaluating scaling decisions. It formalizes how naive extrapolation from pilot studies systematically overestimates policy efficacy by ignoring "voltage drops," declining treatment effects due to unrepresentativeness at scale. The model demonstrates that optimal scaling policy requires mechanism-based design that anticipates these failures through backward induction from implementation realities. The scientific insights from a set of recent studies provide valuable perspectives on the model.

Suggested Citation

  • John List, 2025. "The Economics of Scaling Early Childhood Programs: Lessons from The Chicago School," Natural Field Experiments 00829, The Field Experiments Website.
    • Handle: RePEc:feb:natura:00829
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John List, 2021. "The Voltage Effect in Behavioral Economics," Artefactual Field Experiments 00733, The Field Experiments Website.
    2. Omar Al-Ubaydli & Chien-Yu Lai & John A. List, 2023. "A Simple Rational Expectations Model of the Voltage Effect," NBER Working Papers 30850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. James J. Heckman & Jora Stixrud & Sergio Urzua, 2006. "The Effects of Cognitive and Noncognitive Abilities on Labor Market Outcomes and Social Behavior," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(3), pages 411-482, July.
    4. Noam Angrist & Peter Bergman & Moitshepi Matsheng, 2022. "Experimental evidence on learning using low-tech when school is out," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(7), pages 941-950, July.
    5. Karthik Muralidharan & Abhijeet Singh, 2025. "Adapting for scale: Experimental Evidence on Technology-aided Instruction in India," NBER Working Papers 34205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Elizabeth Caucutt & Lance Lochner & Joseph Mullins & Youngmin Park, 2026. "Child Skill Production: Accounting for Parental and Market-Based Time and Goods Investments," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 134(1), pages 150-209.
    7. Omar Al-Ubaydli & John A. List & Dana L. Suskind, 2017. "What Can We Learn from Experiments? Understanding the Threats to the Scalability of Experimental Results," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 282-286, May.
    8. Faith Fatchen & John List & Francesca Pagnotta, 2025. "Using AI to Generate Option C Scaling Ideas: A Case Study in Early Education," Framed Field Experiments 00822, The Field Experiments Website.
    9. Alec Brandon & Christopher M. Clapp & John A. List & Robert D. Metcalfe & Michael Price, 2022. "The Human Perils of Scaling Smart Technologies: Evidence from Field Experiments," NBER Working Papers 30482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Omar Al-Ubaydli & John A. List & Dana Suskind, 2019. "The Science of Using Science: Towards an Understanding of the Threats to Scaling Experiments," NBER Working Papers 25848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Joseph Mullins, 2026. "A Structural Meta-Analysis of Welfare Reform Experiments and Their Impacts on Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 134(1), pages 435-477.
    12. Al-Ubaydli, Omar & Lee, Min Sok & List, John A. & Mackevicius, Claire L. & Suskind, Dana, 2021. "How can experiments play a greater role in public policy? Twelve proposals from an economic model of scaling," Behavioural Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 2-49, January.
    13. Eva Vivalt, 2020. "How Much Can We Generalize From Impact Evaluations?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(6), pages 3045-3089.
    14. James J. Heckman & Jin Zhou, 2026. "A Study of the Microdynamics of Early-Childhood Learning," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 134(1), pages 49-85.
    15. Patrick Kline & Christopher R. Walters, 2016. "Evaluating Public Programs with Close Substitutes: The Case of HeadStart," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1795-1848.
    16. Francesco Agostinelli & Matthias Doepke & Giuseppe Sorrenti & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2026. "It Takes a Village: The Economics of Parenting with Neighborhood and Peer Effects," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 134(1), pages 313-365.
    17. Christopher S. Cotton & Brent R. Hickman & John A. List & Joseph Price & Sutanuka Roy, 2026. "Why Don’t Struggling Students Do Their Homework? Disentangling Motivation and Study Productivity as Drivers of Human Capital Formation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 134(1), pages 86-149.
    18. Al-Ubaydli, Omar & Lee, Min Sok & List, John A. & Mackevicius, Claire L. & Suskind, Dana, 2021. "A rejoinder: ‘How can experiments play a greater role in public policy? Twelve proposals from an economic model of scaling’," Behavioural Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 125-134, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. John List, 2026. "A Summary of Framed Field Experiments Published in 2025 on FieldExperiments.com," Framed Field Experiments 00832, The Field Experiments Website.
    2. John List, 2026. "A Summary of Artefactual Field Experiments on FieldExperiments.com in 2025: The Who's, What's, Where's, and When's," Artefactual Field Experiments 00831, The Field Experiments Website.
    3. Sarah Cattan & Gabriella Conti & Christine Farquharson, 2026. "Workforce Quality and Early Childhood Development at Scale," CSEF Working Papers 777, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    4. Aaron L. Bodoh-Creed & Brent R. Hickman & John A. List & Ian Muir & Gregory K. Sun, 2026. "Salience and (Non-)Buyer's Remorse: Optimal Nonlinear Pricing with Cognitively Constrained Consumers," NBER Working Papers 35003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Rosenzweig, Mark & Xu, Bing, 2026. "Class Peers as Competitors and Educators: The Consequences of Rank-Based Academic Rewards," IZA Discussion Papers 18676, IZA Network @ LISER.
    6. Ze Fu & Yuxi Chu & Tangxiaoxue Zhang & Yawen Li & Xiaosha Wang & Yanchao Bi, 2026. "Semantic similarity across languages reflects neurocognitive dimensions shaped by climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 17(1), pages 1-18, December.
    7. Tetiana Sharhun & Anna Zhukova & Mariana Levko & Iryna Tarasiuk & Mariia Voloshyn, 2026. "Lexical Approach and Terminology in Developing Professional Competence: A Case Study in Ukrainian Higher Education," Journal of Education and Training Studies, Redfame publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 171-183, April.
    8. John List, 2026. "Natural Field Experiments Published in 2025 on FieldExperiments.com," Natural Field Experiments 00833, The Field Experiments Website.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General
    • H4 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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