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The Economics of Scaling Early Childhood Programs: Lessons from the Chicago School

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  • John A. List

Abstract

Many ideas succeed in small trials but weaken considerably at scale. Using early childhood investment as a case study, this paper develops a dynamic microfounded human capital model stylized in the Chicago tradition. The framework features optimizing agents, complementary skill formation, and a policymaker choosing scaling strategies. The model shows that naive extrapolation from pilots systematically overestimates societal impact by overlooking voltage drops: declining benefit-cost profiles due to unrepresentative samples and contexts. Optimal scaling requires option C thinking, a mechanism-based design approach that anticipates these failures through backward induction from real-world implementation constraints. Studies in this special issue enrich the model’s insights.

Suggested Citation

  • John A. List, 2026. "The Economics of Scaling Early Childhood Programs: Lessons from the Chicago School," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 134(1), pages 1-48.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/739436
    DOI: 10.1086/739436
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