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The Economics of Scaling Early Childhood Programs: Lessons from The Chicago School

Author

Listed:
  • John A. List

    (Department of Economics and Australian National University and also NBER)

Abstract

Many ideas show remarkable returns in small-scale trials but often disappoint when scaled to broader populations and contexts. Using early childhood investment as a case study, this study develops a dynamic human capital formation model that integrates complementary skill investment with “Option C thinking†on scaling challenges. The model is stylized in the Chicago tradition: micro-founded with optimizing agents, dynamic skill production, and a policymaker evaluating scaling decisions. It formalizes how naive extrapolation from pilot studies systematically overestimates policy efficacy by ignoring “voltage drops,†declining treatment effects due to unrepresentativeness at scale. The model demonstrates that optimal scaling policy requires mechanism-based design that anticipates these failures through backward induction from implementation realities. The scientific insights from a set of recent studies provide valuable perspectives on the model.

Suggested Citation

  • John A. List, 2026. "The Economics of Scaling Early Childhood Programs: Lessons from The Chicago School," Working Papers 2026-11, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-11
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    File URL: https://repec.bfi.uchicago.edu/RePEc/pdfs/BFI_WP_2026-11.pdf
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General
    • H4 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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