IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ezo/ezppap/wp03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Die Osterweiterung der Eurozone: Einige grundlegende Ueberlegungen zu Moeglichkeiten und Risiken

Author

Listed:
  • Hanns-D. Jacobsen

    (Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, Freie Universitaet Berlin)

  • Andrej Stuchlik

    (Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, Freie Universitaet Berlin)

Abstract

Once part of the European Union no opt-out means, for CEE applicant countries, that they will have to become members of the Eurozone as soon as they fulfil the Maastricht criteria. However, compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact and aiming at nominal and real convergence imply efforts which are significantly higher than the simple implementation of the acquis communautaire. Torn between completing their transformation process on the one hand and linking their economies as fast as possible to euroland on the other, most CEE countries face the risk of fixing their currency too eagerly, thus, being trapped to choose disinflation over growth. This paper presents the increased risk potential across the most important policy areas: capital markets, trade and FDI, labour markets, exchange rate policy, and monetary and fiscal policy. Moreover, a brief comparison of the Czech Republic and Poland reveals the need for further specific country analysis, since CEE countries’ exposure to possible risks of the Eurozone enlargement vary significantly.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanns-D. Jacobsen & Andrej Stuchlik, 2002. "Die Osterweiterung der Eurozone: Einige grundlegende Ueberlegungen zu Moeglichkeiten und Risiken," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp03, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Feb 2002.
    • Handle: RePEc:ezo:ezppap:wp03
    Note: Paper is in german
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ezoneplus.org/archiv/ezoneplus_wp_three.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Diba, Behzad T., 1991. "Fiscal deficits, financial integration, and a central bank for Europe," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 381-403, December.
    2. Martin Cincibuch, David Vávra, 2001. "Toward the European Monetary Union - A Need for Exchange Rate Flexibility?," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 23-63, November.
    3. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 08-45.
    4. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    5. Michael Reutter & Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000. "The Minimum Inflation Rate for Euroland," CESifo Working Paper Series 377, CESifo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Attila Csajbók (ed.) & Ágnes Csermely (ed.), 2002. "Adopting the euro in Hungary: expected costs, benefits and timing," MNB Occasional Papers 2002/24, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    2. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Intenational Currency Experience: New Lessons and Lessons Relearned," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 119-220.
    3. Vladislav Flek & Lenka Marková & Jiøí Podpiera, 2003. "Sectoral Productivity and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation: Much Ado about Nothing?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 53(3-4), pages 130-153, March.
    4. Pieter van Foreest & Casper de Vries, 2003. "The Forex Regime and EMU Expansion," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 285-298, July.
    5. Franz Traxler & Bernd Brandl, 2012. "Collective Bargaining, Inter‐Sectoral Heterogeneity and Competitiveness: A Cross‐National Comparison of Macroeconomic Performance," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 50(1), pages 73-98, March.
    6. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    7. Diego Bastourre & Luis Casanova & Alejo Espora, 2011. "Tipo de Cambio Real y Crecimiento: Síntesis de la Evidencia y Agenda de Investigación," Department of Economics, Working Papers 082, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    8. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra‐industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, January.
    9. Lein, Sarah M. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & Nerlich, Carolin, 2008. "How is real convergence driving nominal convergence in the new EU Member States?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 227-248, March.
    10. Lenarčič, Črt & Masten, Igor, 2020. "Is there a Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect? New panel data evidence from 28 European countries," MPRA Paper 100647, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Jönsson, Kristian, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate and Consumption Fluctuations following Trade Liberalization," Working Paper Series 187, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    12. Sell, Friedrich L., 2001. "Braucht es monetäre und reale Konvergenz für eine (in einer) Währungsunion? Anmerkungen zu einer aktuellen Debatte," Working Papers in Economics 2001,1, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
    13. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2004. "What's Really the Story with this Balassa-Samuelson Effect in the CEECs?," Diskussionsschriften dp0416, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    14. Patrick Honohan & Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Divergent inflation rates in EMU [‘European financial integration and equity returns: a theory-based assessment’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 357-394.
    15. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Costs and Benefits of the EMU and Other Monetary Unions: An Overview of Recent Research," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 603-641, September.
    16. Jönsson, Kristian, 2004. "Real Exchange Rate and Consumption Fluctuations following Trade Liberalization," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 568, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 04 Jan 2005.
    17. Wagner, Martin, 2005. "The Balassa-Samuelson Effect in 'East & West'. Differences and Similarities," Economics Series 180, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    18. Christian Proaño Acosta, 2007. "Inflation Differentials and Business Cycle Fluctuations in the European Monetary Union," IMK Working Paper 05-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    19. Heather Gibson & Jim Malley, 2008. "The Contribution of Sectoral Productivity Differentials to Inflation in Greece," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(5), pages 629-650, November.
    20. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:106:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EMU enlargement; monetary integration;

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • P2 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ezo:ezppap:wp03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stefan Hohenberger The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Stefan Hohenberger to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ezonede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.