IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/exs/wpaper/23-057.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Russia-Ukraine war and G7 debt markets: Evidence from public sentiment towards economic sanctions during the conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Zunaidah Sulong

    (Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin, Malaysia)

  • Mohammad Abdullah

    (Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin, Malaysia)

  • Emmanuel J. A. Abakah

    (University of Ghana Business School, Accra Ghana)

  • David Adeabah

    (University of Ghana Business School, Accra Ghana)

  • Simplice Asongu

    (Yaoundé, Cameroon)

Abstract

War-related expectations cause changes to investors’ risks and returns preferences. In this study, we examine the implications of war and sanctions sentiment for the G7 countries’ debt markets during the Russia-Ukraine war. We use behavioral indicators across social media, news media, and internet attention to reflect the public sentiment from 1st January 2022 to 20th April 2023. We apply the quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) and rolling window wavelet correlation (RWWC) methods. The quantile-on-quantile regression results show heterogenous impact on fixed income securities. Specifically, extreme public sentiment has a negative impact on G7 fixed income securities return. The wavelets correlation result shows dynamic correlation pattern among public sentiment and fixed income securities. There is a negative relationship between public sentiment and G7 fixed income securities. The correlation is time-varying and highly event dependent. Our additional analysis using corporate bond data indicates the robustness of our findings. Furthermore, the contagion analysis shows public sentiment significantly influence G7 fixed income securities spillover. Our findings can be of great significance while framing strategies for asset allocation, portfolio performance and risk hedging.

Suggested Citation

  • Zunaidah Sulong & Mohammad Abdullah & Emmanuel J. A. Abakah & David Adeabah & Simplice Asongu, 2023. "Russia-Ukraine war and G7 debt markets: Evidence from public sentiment towards economic sanctions during the conflict," Working Papers 23/057, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    • Handle: RePEc:exs:wpaper:23/057
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://publications.excas.org/RePEc/exs/exs-wpaper/Russia-Ukraine-war-and-G7-debt-markets-Evidence-from-public-sentiment-towards-economic-sanctions-during-the-conflict.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2023
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zaremba, Adam & Kizys, Renatas & Aharon, David Y. & Umar, Zaghum, 2022. "Term spreads and the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from international sovereign bond markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    2. Martina Halouskov'a & Daniel Stav{s}ek & Mat'uv{s} Horv'ath, 2022. "The role of investor attention in global asset price variation during the invasion of Ukraine," Papers 2205.05985, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    3. Gençay, Ramazan & Gençay, Ramazan & Selçuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon J., 2001. "An Introduction to Wavelets and Other Filtering Methods in Finance and Economics," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780122796708.
    4. Umar, Zaghum & Polat, Onur & Choi, Sun-Yong & Teplova, Tamara, 2022. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the connectedness of financial markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    5. Kumari, Vineeta & Kumar, Gaurav & Pandey, Dharen Kumar, 2023. "Are the European Union stock markets vulnerable to the Russia–Ukraine war?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    6. Feng, Chaonan & Han, Liyan & Vigne, Samuel & Xu, Yang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the dynamics of international capital flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Wali Ullah, G M, 2024. "Asymmetric dynamics between geopolitical conflict sentiment and cryptomarkets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    2. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Yousaf, Imran & Kumar Tiwari, Aviral & Li, Yanshuang, 2024. "Economic sanctions sentiment and global stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Dankwah, Boakye & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2024. "Asymmetric dynamics between the Baltic Dry Index and financial markets during major global economic events," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Reinhold Heinlein & Gabriella D. Legrenzi & Scott M. R. Mahadeo & Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi, 2024. "Exchange Rates and Sovereign Risk: A Nonlinear Approach Based on Local Gaussian Correlations," CESifo Working Paper Series 11019, CESifo.
    5. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Wali Ullah, G M & Abdullah, Mohammad & Lee, Chi-Chuan & Sulong, Zunaidah, 2024. "Correlation structure between fiat currencies and blockchain assets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhou, Haonan & Lu, Xinjie, 2023. "Investor attention on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and stock market volatility: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Zhao, Ling, 2023. "Global economic policy uncertainty and oil futures volatility prediction," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Assaf, Rima & Rai, Varun Kumar, 2023. "Did the Indian stock market sail the Russia-Ukraine storm safely?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    4. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Border disputes, conflicts, war, and financial markets research: A systematic review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Wali Ullah, G M, 2024. "Asymmetric dynamics between geopolitical conflict sentiment and cryptomarkets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    6. Umar, Zaghum & Mokni, Khaled & Escribano, Ana, 2022. "Connectedness between the COVID-19 related media coverage and Islamic equities: The role of economic policy uncertainty," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Gaio, Luiz Eduardo & Stefanelli, Nelson Oliveira & Pimenta, Tabajara & Bonacim, Carlos Alberto Grespan & Gatsios, Rafael Confetti, 2022. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on market efficiency: Evidence for the developed stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    8. Michis Antonis A, 2009. "Regression Analysis of Marketing Time Series: A Wavelet Approach with Some Frequency Domain Insights," Review of Marketing Science, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-43, July.
    9. Schroeder, Anna Louise & Fryzlewicz, Piotr, 2013. "Adaptive trend estimation in financial time series via multiscale change-point-induced basis recovery," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 54934, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Deniz Erdemlioglu & Nikola Gradojevic, 2021. "Heterogeneous investment horizons, risk regimes, and realized jumps," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 617-643, January.
    11. Andersson, Fredrik N.G. & Edgerton, David L. & Opper, Sonja, 2013. "A Matter of Time: Revisiting Growth Convergence in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 239-251.
    12. Bilgili, Faik & Mugaloglu, Erhan & Koçak, Emrah, 2018. "The impact of oil prices on CO2 emissions in China: A Wavelet coherence approach," MPRA Paper 90170, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati, 2005. "Wavelet variance and correlation analyses of output in G7 countries," Macroeconomics 0512017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Yushu Li & Fredrik N. G. Andersson, 2021. "A simple wavelet-based test for serial correlation in panel data models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2351-2363, May.
    15. Dimitrios Panagiotou & Athanassios Stavrakoudis, 2023. "Price dependence among the major EU extra virgin olive oil markets: a time scale analysis," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 1-26, March.
    16. Wang, Yi-Ran & Ma, Chao-Qun & Ren, Yi-Shuai, 2022. "A model for CBDC audits based on blockchain technology: Learning from the DCEP," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    17. Nader Naifar & Shumokh Aljarba, 2023. "Does Geopolitical Risk Matter for Sovereign Credit Risk? Fresh Evidence from Nonlinear Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-17, February.
    18. Mamadou-Diéne Diop & Jules Sadefo Kamdem, 2023. "Multiscale Agricultural Commodities Forecasting Using Wavelet-SARIMA Process," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(1), pages 1-40, March.
    19. Wen-Yi Chen, 2016. "Health progress and economic growth in the USA: the continuous wavelet analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 831-855, May.
    20. Zhu, Qinwen & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2023. "Volatility forecast with the regularity modifications," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russia-Ukraine war; economic sanctions; G7 debt; fixed income securities; quantile approaches;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:exs:wpaper:23/057. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anutechia Asongu Simplice (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://excas.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.