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Macroeconomic Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Productivity: An estimate from a survey

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  • Masayuki MORIKAWA

Abstract

Based on a survey of Japanese workers, this study documents the characteristics of workers who use artificial intelligence (AI) in their jobs and estimates the effects of this new general-purpose technology on macroeconomic productivity. The results indicate, first, 8.3% of workers used AI in their jobs in 2024, which is approximately 1.5 times than in 2023. Second, more educated and high-wage workers tend to use AI, suggesting that its diffusion may increase labor market inequality. Third, the use of AI is estimated to have increased labor productivity in the macroeconomy by 0.5–0.6%. Fourth, nearly 30% of workers expect to use AI for their jobs in the future, suggesting that its macroeconomic effects will increase. However, the productivity effect of AI for those who recently started using it is relatively small, suggesting a diminishing productivity impact of AI.

Suggested Citation

  • Masayuki MORIKAWA, 2024. "Macroeconomic Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Productivity: An estimate from a survey," Discussion papers 24084, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:24084
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Erik Brynjolfsson & Danielle Li & Lindsey Raymond, 2025. "Generative AI at Work," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 140(2), pages 889-942.
    2. Alexander Bick & Adam Blandin & David J. Deming, 2026. "The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 72(10), pages 8440-8456, October.
    3. Daisuke Adachi & Daiji Kawaguchi & Yukiko U. Saito, 2024. "Robots and Employment: Evidence from Japan, 1978–2017," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(2), pages 591-634.
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