IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eti/dpaper/22060.html

Double-edged Trains: Economic outcomes and regional disparity of high-speed railways

Author

Listed:
  • Sunbin YOO
  • Junya KUMAGAI
  • Kohei KAWASAKI
  • Sungwan HONG
  • Bingqi ZHANG
  • Takuya SHIMAMURA
  • Shunsuke MANAGI

Abstract

We illuminate the causal relationship between high-speed railway (HSR) expansions and economic development, focusing on HSR in Japan–the Shinkansen–from 1983 to 2020. To address endogeneity concerns about HSR station construction, we employ a market access approach that captures both the direct and indirect impacts of HSR expansion. The results show that a 1% increase in HSR market access increases the land price by 0.176%, income by 0.425%, and income per capita by 0.023% of Japan. However, most of the benefits are focused in Tokyo and other developed areas, while the economic growth due to HSR expansion of cities outside these areas is negative or statistically insignificant. We confirm the robustness of the results through the instrumental variable (IV) approach and a series of robustness checks. Next, we conduct counterfactual analyses using regression results to evaluate future Japanese HSR plans: the Linear Shinkansen, regional expansion, and a policy that would implement both. Simulation results reconfirm that future HSR plans will induce economic growth but, at the same time, aggravate regional disparity; thus, the expected economic outcomes may be double-edged.

Suggested Citation

  • Sunbin YOO & Junya KUMAGAI & Kohei KAWASAKI & Sungwan HONG & Bingqi ZHANG & Takuya SHIMAMURA & Shunsuke MANAGI, 2022. "Double-edged Trains: Economic outcomes and regional disparity of high-speed railways," Discussion papers 22060, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:22060
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/22e060.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Banerjee, Abhijit & Duflo, Esther & Qian, Nancy, 2020. "On the road: Access to transportation infrastructure and economic growth in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Maparu, Tuhin Subhra & Mazumder, Tarak Nath, 2017. "Transport infrastructure, economic development and urbanization in India (1990–2011): Is there any causal relationship?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 319-336.
    3. Redding, Stephen & Venables, Anthony J., 2004. "Economic geography and international inequality," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January.
    4. Herzog, Ian, 2021. "National transportation networks, market access, and regional economic growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    5. H. Hanson, Gordon, 2005. "Market potential, increasing returns and geographic concentration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-24, September.
    6. Koster, Hans & Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Thisse, Jacques-François, 2021. "High-speed Rail and the Spatial Distribution of Economic Activity: Evidence from Japan's Shinkansen," CEPR Discussion Papers 15771, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    7. Okamoto, Chigusa & Sato, Yasuhiro, 2021. "Impacts of high-speed rail construction on land prices in urban agglomerations: Evidence from Kyushu in Japan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. Treb Allen & Costas Arkolakis, 2014. "Trade and the Topography of the Spatial Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(3), pages 1085-1140.
    9. Yatang Lin & Yu Qin & Zhuan Xie, 2016. "High-speed rail in China," CentrePiece - The magazine for economic performance 484, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. Benjamin Faber, 2014. "Trade Integration, Market Size, and Industrialization: Evidence from China's National Trunk Highway System," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(3), pages 1046-1070.
    11. Sahu, Saransh & Verma, Ashish, 2022. "Quantifying wider economic impacts of high-speed connectivity and accessibility: The case of the Karnataka high-speed rail," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 141-155.
    12. Chang, Zheng & Zheng, Longfei, 2022. "High-speed rail and the spatial pattern of new firm births: Evidence from China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 373-386.
    13. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb, 2009. "The Wealth of Cities: Agglomeration Economies and Spatial Equilibrium in the United States," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 983-1028, December.
    14. Lin, Yatang, 2017. "Travel costs and urban specialization patterns: Evidence from China’s high speed railway system," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 98-123.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yoo, Sunbin & Kumagai, Junya & Kawasaki, Kohei & Hong, Sungwan & Zhang, Bingqi & Shimamura, Takuya & Managi, Shunsuke, 2023. "Double-edged trains," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 120-133.
    2. Baum-Snow, Nathaniel & Henderson, J. Vernon & Turner, Matthew A. & Zhang, Qinghua & Brandt, Loren, 2020. "Does investment in national highways help or hurt hinterland city growth?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    3. Jing, Kecen & Liao, Wen-Chi, 2026. "Expressways, market access, and industrial development in China: Using walled-city panel instrumental variables of minimum spanning tree," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    4. Cucu, Florin, 2025. "Roads, internal migration and the spatial sorting of U.S. high-skill workers," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. repec:esx:essedp:729 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Yang, Xiaolan & Wang, Rui & Guo, Dongmei & Sun, Weizeng, 2020. "The reconfiguration effect of China's high-speed railway on intercity connection ——A study based on media attention index," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 47-56.
    7. Wang, Qi & Lu, Shaokai, 2022. "The influence of hybrid accessibility on tourism economy in prefecture-level cities: Evidence from China's high-speed rail network," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    8. Yang Yang, 2018. "Transport Infrastructure, City Productivity Growth and Sectoral Reallocation: Evidence from China," IMF Working Papers 2018/276, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Damiaan Persyn & Javier Barbero & Jorge Díaz‐Lanchas & Patrizio Lecca & Giovanni Mandras & Simone Salotti, 2023. "The ripple effects of large‐scale transport infrastructure investment," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(4), pages 755-792, September.
    10. Breinlich, Holger & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2014. "Regional Growth and Regional Decline," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 4, pages 683-779, Elsevier.
    11. Xu, Yang & Yang, Xi, 2021. "Access to ports and the welfare gains from domestic transportation infrastructure," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    12. Pi, Yabin & Wang, Yanzhen, 2025. "Transportation infrastructure, comparative advantage, and regional specialization: Evidence from China’s high-speed railway network," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    13. Dong, Lei & Du, Rui & Kahn, Matthew & Ratti, Carlo & Zheng, Siqi, 2021. "“Ghost cities” versus boom towns: Do China's high-speed rail new towns thrive?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    14. Redding, Stephen J. & Turner, Matthew A., 2015. "Transportation Costs and the Spatial Organization of Economic Activity," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1339-1398, Elsevier.
    15. Li, Chunying & Zhang, Jinning & Lyu, Yanwei, 2022. "Does the opening of China railway express promote urban total factor productivity? New evidence based on SDID and SDDD model," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    16. Manabu Nose & Yasuyuki Sawada, 2025. "From Battlefield to Marketplace: Legacies, Highways and Polycentric Development in Vietnam," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1251, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    17. Dongxiao Niu & Weizeng Sun & Siqi Zheng, 2020. "Travel costs, trade, and market segmentation: Evidence from China's high‐speed railway," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(6), pages 1799-1825, December.
    18. Ma, Lin & Tang, Yang, 2024. "The distributional impacts of transportation networks in China," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    19. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Cristea, Anca D., 2015. "Air service and urban growth: Evidence from a quasi-natural policy experiment," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 128-146.
    20. Pauly, Stefan & Stipanicic, Fernando, 2021. "The creation and diffusion of knowledge: Evidence from the Jet Age," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 2112, CEPREMAP.
    21. Dong, Xiaofang & Zheng, Siqi & Kahn, Matthew E., 2020. "The role of transportation speed in facilitating high skilled teamwork across cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:22060. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: TANIMOTO, Toko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rietijp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.