IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eti/dpaper/20009.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economic Black Holes and Labor Singularities in the Presence of Self-replicating Artificial Intelligence

Author

Listed:
  • YANO Makoto
  • FURUKAWA Yuichi

Abstract

This study is motivated by the widely-held view that self-replicating artificial intelligence may approach "some essential singularity . . . beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue" (von Neumann). It investigates what state this process would lead to in an economy with frictionless markets. We demonstrate that if the production technologies, too, are frictionless, all workers will eventually be pulled into the most labor friendly sector (economic black hole). If, instead, they are subject to a friction created by congestion, it will give rise to, within a finite span of time, a state in which all workers will be unemployed (total job destruction).

Suggested Citation

  • YANO Makoto & FURUKAWA Yuichi, 2020. "Economic Black Holes and Labor Singularities in the Presence of Self-replicating Artificial Intelligence," Discussion papers 20009, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:20009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/20e009.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph Zeira, 1998. "Workers, Machines, and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1091-1117.
    2. Chu, Angus C. & Cozzi, Guido & Furukawa, Yuichi & Liao, Chih-Hsing, 2023. "Should the government subsidize innovation or automation?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 1059-1088, June.
    3. Boldrin, Michele & Levine, David K., 2002. "Factor Saving Innovation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 18-41, July.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1488-1542, June.
    5. Masayuki Morikawa, 2017. "Firms' Expectations About The Impact Of Ai And Robotics: Evidence From A Survey," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 1054-1063, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Angus C. Chu & Guido Cozzi & Yuichi Furukawa & Chih-Hsing Liao, 2019. "Effects of Minimum Wage on Automation and Innovation in a Schumpeterian Economy," Working Papers 201912, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    2. Yuki, Kazuhiro, 2012. "Mechanization, task assignment, and inequality," MPRA Paper 37754, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Andrés O. Dávila & Manuel Fernández & Hernando Zuleta, 2021. "The Natural Resource Boom and The Uneven Fall of The Labor Share," Documentos CEDE 19427, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    4. Kohei Okada, 2020. "Dynamic Analysis of Education, Automation, and Economic Growth," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 20-09, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    5. Hernando Zuleta & Daniel Gamboa, 2019. "Factor reallocation and growth: what if there are labor saving innovations?," Documentos CEDE 17199, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    6. Kyoji Fukao & Cristiano Perugini, 2021. "The Long‐Run Dynamics of the Labor Share in Japan," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(2), pages 445-480, June.
    7. Daniele Angelini, 2023. "Aging Population and Technology Adoption," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2023-01, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    8. Philippe Aghion & Céline Antonin & Simon Bunel & Xavier Jaravel, 2020. "What Are the Labor and Product Market Effects of Automation? New Evidence from France," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403062, HAL.
    9. Andreas Irmen, 2021. "Automation, growth, and factor shares in the era of population aging," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 415-453, December.
    10. Zhu, Jun & Zhang, Jingting & Feng, Yiqing, 2022. "Hard budget constraints and artificial intelligence technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    11. Jacques Bughin, 2020. "How Firms will affect the Future of Work," Working Papers TIMES² 2020-035, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Guimarães, Luís & Mazeda Gil, Pedro, 2022. "Explaining the Labor Share: Automation Vs Labor Market Institutions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    13. Diaz Pavez, Luis R. & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2021. "The impact of local and foreign automation on labor market outcomes in emerging countries," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 423, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    14. Antonio Cutanda, 2022. "The elasticity of substitution and labor-saving innovations in the Spanish regions," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 49(2 Year 20), pages 123-144, December.
    15. Hémous, David & Dechezleprêtre, Antoine & Olsen, Morten & Zanella, carlo, 2019. "Automating Labor: Evidence from Firm-level Patent Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 14249, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Rada, Codrina & Tavani, Daniele & von Arnim, Rudiger & Zamparelli, Luca, 2023. "Classical and Keynesian models of inequality and stagnation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 442-461.
    17. Hernando Zuleta & antiago Alberico, 2007. "Labor supply, biased technological change and economic growth," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 25(53), pages 260-286, January.
    18. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "The wrong kind of AI? Artificial intelligence and the future of labour demand," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 13(1), pages 25-35.
    19. Qichun He & Xin Yang & Heng-fu Zou, 2024. "Money, Growth, and Welfare in a Schumpeterian Model with Automation," CEMA Working Papers 640, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    20. Dilip Mookherjee & Debraj Ray, 2022. "Growth, Automation and the Long-Run Share of Labor," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 1-26, October.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:20009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: TANIMOTO, Toko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rietijp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.