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Adaptation, Plasticity, and Extinction in a Changing Environment: Towards a Predictive Theory


  • Luis-Miguel Chevin


  • Russell Lande
  • Georgina M Mace


A simple evolutionary model is used to understand the critical rate of environmental change beyond which a population must decline and go extinct. The model is used to highlight the major determinants of extinction risk in a changing environment, and identify research needs for improved predictions based on projected changes in environmental variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis-Miguel Chevin & Russell Lande & Georgina M Mace, 2010. "Adaptation, Plasticity, and Extinction in a Changing Environment: Towards a Predictive Theory," Working Papers id:2494, eSocialSciences.
  • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2494
    Note: Institutional Papers

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    Cited by:

    1. Ayllón, Daniel & Railsback, Steven F. & Vincenzi, Simone & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Almodóvar, Ana & Grimm, Volker, 2016. "InSTREAM-Gen: Modelling eco-evolutionary dynamics of trout populations under anthropogenic environmental change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 326(C), pages 36-53.
    2. Maldonado-Chaparro, Adriana A. & Read, Dwight W. & Blumstein, Daniel T., 2017. "Can individual variation in phenotypic plasticity enhance population viability?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 352(C), pages 19-30.
    3. Matt J. Michel & Huicheng Chien & Collin E. Beachum & Micah G. Bennett & Jason H. Knouft, 2017. "Climate change, hydrology, and fish morphology: predictions using phenotype-environment associations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 563-576, February.
    4. repec:eee:thpobi:v:117:y:2017:i:c:p:64-75 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Robert J. Knell & Stephen J. Thackeray, 2016. "Voltinism and resilience to climate-induced phenological mismatch," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 525-539, August.
    6. repec:eee:ecomod:v:264:y:2013:i:c:p:83-97 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    climate change; demography; ecologically; heritability; quantitative trait; evolutionary model; environmental change; extinction risk; environment; vaiables; population; Adaptation; Plasticity; Predictive Theory;

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