Assets returns volatility and investment horizon: The French case
This paper explores French assets returns predictability within a VAR setup. Using quarterly data from 1970Q4 to 2006Q4, it turns out that bonds, equities and bills returns are actually predictable. This feature implies that the investment horizon does indeed matter in the asset allocation. The VAR parameters estimates are then used to compute real returns conditional volatility across investment horizons. The results reveal the same kind of horizon effect as the one found in recent empirical studies using quarterly U.S. data. More specifically, the annualized standard deviation of French stocks returns goes down from 22% for a 1-year horizon to only 2.8% for a 25-year investment horizon. They suggest that long-horizon investors overstate the share of bonds in their portfolio choice when neglecting the horizon effect on risk of asset returns predictability.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 33 1 34 25 60 63
Fax: 33 1 34 25 62 33
Web page: http://thema.u-cergy.fr
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Samuelson, Paul A, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 239-46, August.
- Campbell, John Y, 1991.
"A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-79, March.
- Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002.
"Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen/Seo paper on threshold cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTZ00092, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996.
"Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
- Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's threshold estimation and testing results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00091, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "TAR: RATS procedure to estimate a threshold autoregression, tests for threshold effect," Statistical Software Components RTS00209, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999.
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
- Campbell, John Y & Chan, Yeung Lewis & Viceira, Luis M, 2001.
"A Multivariate Model of Strategic Asset Allocation,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Campbell, John Y. & Chan, Yeung Lewis & Viceira, Luis M., 2003. "A multivariate model of strategic asset allocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 41-80, January.
- Chan, Yeung Lewis & Viceira, Luis & Campbell, John, 2003. "A Multivariate Model of Strategic Asset Allocation," Scholarly Articles 3163263, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Yeung Lewis Chan & Luis M. Viceira, 2001. "A Multivariate Model of Strategic Asset Allocation," NBER Working Papers 8566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-57, August.
- Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, 02.
- Bai, Jushan & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1998.
"Testing for and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432, July.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to demonstrate Bai, Lumsdaine, Stock common breaks in VAR," Statistical Software Components RTZ00171, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2008-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marion Oury)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Marion Oury to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.