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Muddling Through: Moisy Equlibrium Selection

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  • Ken Binmore
  • Larry Samuelson

Abstract

This paper examines an evolutionary model in which the primary source of noise that moves the model between equilibria is not arbitrarily improbvable mutations but mistakes in learning. We model strategy selection as a birth-death process, allowing us to and a simple, closed-form solution for the stationary distribution of the model even though we take the noise to be bounded away from zero. We examine equilibrium selection by considering the limiting case as the population gets large, eliminating aggregate noise from the model. Conditions are established under which the risk-dominant equilibrium in a 2 x 2 game is selected by the model as well as conditions under which the payoff-dominant equilibrium is selected.

Suggested Citation

  • Ken Binmore & Larry Samuelson, "undated". "Muddling Through: Moisy Equlibrium Selection," ELSE working papers 036, ESRC Centre on Economics Learning and Social Evolution.
  • Handle: RePEc:els:esrcls:036
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
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    6. Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 1995. "Case-Based Decision Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 605-639.
    7. Robson, Arthur J. & Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 1996. "Efficient Equilibrium Selection in Evolutionary Games with Random Matching," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 65-92, July.
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    13. Noldeke Georg & Samuelson Larry, 1993. "An Evolutionary Analysis of Backward and Forward Induction," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 425-454, July.
    14. Ken Binmore & Larry Samuelson, 1994. "Muddling Through: Noisy Equilibrium Selection," Game Theory and Information 9410002, EconWPA.
    15. Binmore, K. & Samuelson, L. & Vaughan, R., 1993. "Musical Chairs: Modelling Noisy Evolution," Working papers 9324, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
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    18. Friedman, Daniel, 1996. "Equilibrium in Evolutionary Games: Some Experimental Results," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 1-25, January.
    19. Noldeke Georg & Samuelson Larry, 1993. "An Evolutionary Analysis of Backward and Forward Induction," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 425-454, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equilibrium selection; Evolutionary games; Mutations; Risk dominance.;

    JEL classification:

    • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General

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