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Does cutting child benefits reduce fertility in larger families? Evidence from the UK’s two-child limit

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  • Reader, Mary
  • Portes, Jonathan
  • Patrick, Ruth

Abstract

We study the fertility effects of restricting child-related social assistance to the first two children in the family. As of 2017, all third and subsequent children born on or after 6 April 2017 in the UK were made ineligible for approximately 3000 GBP of means-tested child benefits per year. Using a triple difference and regression discontinuity design, we leverage administrative births microdata to identify the impact of the two-child limit on higher-order births. We find little to no decline in higher-order fertility among low-income families, with our estimates indicating at most small elasticities relative to the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Reader, Mary & Portes, Jonathan & Patrick, Ruth, 2025. "Does cutting child benefits reduce fertility in larger families? Evidence from the UK’s two-child limit," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 127503, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:127503
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    Cited by:

    1. Kate Andersen & Ruth Patrick, 2022. "The two-child limit & ‘choices’ over family size: When policy presentation collides with lived experiences," CASE Papers /226, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
    2. Gordon Dahl & Katrine Loken, 2024. "Families, Public Policies, and the Labor Market," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2423, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    3. Patrick, Ruth & Andersen, Kate, 2022. "The two-child limit & 'choices' over family size: when policy presentation collides with lived experiences," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121570, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Mari, Gabriele, 2023. "Less for more? Cuts to child benefits, family adjustments, and long-run child outcomes in larger families," SocArXiv e3n82, Center for Open Science.
    5. Ruth Patrick & Aaron Reeves & Kitty Stewart, 2023. "The sins of the parents: Conceptualising adult-oriented reforms to family policy," CASE Papers /228, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
    6. Gabriele Mari, 2024. "Less for more? Cuts to child benefits, family adjustments, and long-run child outcomes in larger families," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 1-27, June.
    7. Stewart, Kitty & Patrick, Ruth & Reeves, Aaron, 2023. "The sins of the parents: conceptualising adult-oriented reforms to family policy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121533, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; family size; social assistance; welfare reform; J18; Family size; Fertility; H31; H53; J13; Social assistance; Welfare reform;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs

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