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Does Cutting Child Benefits Reduce Fertility in Larger Families? Evidence from the UK’s Two-Child Limit

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Listed:
  • Mary Reader

    (Stanford University
    London School of Economics, STICERD)

  • Jonathan Portes

    (King’s College London)

  • Ruth Patrick

    (University of York)

Abstract

We study the fertility effects of restricting child-related social assistance to the first two children in the family. As of 2017, all third and subsequent children born on or after 6 April 2017 in the UK were made ineligible for approximately 3000 GBP of means-tested child benefits per year. Using a triple difference and regression discontinuity design, we leverage administrative births microdata to identify the impact of the two-child limit on higher-order births. We find little to no decline in higher-order fertility among low-income families, with our estimates indicating at most small elasticities relative to the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Mary Reader & Jonathan Portes & Ruth Patrick, 2025. "Does Cutting Child Benefits Reduce Fertility in Larger Families? Evidence from the UK’s Two-Child Limit," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 44(2), pages 1-26, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:44:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s11113-025-09935-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-025-09935-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Kate Andersen & Ruth Patrick, 2022. "The two-child limit & ‘choices’ over family size: When policy presentation collides with lived experiences," CASE Papers /226, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
    2. Patrick, Ruth & Andersen, Kate, 2022. "The two-child limit & 'choices' over family size: when policy presentation collides with lived experiences," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121570, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Gabriele Mari, 2024. "Less for more? Cuts to child benefits, family adjustments, and long-run child outcomes in larger families," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 1-27, June.
    4. Stewart, Kitty & Patrick, Ruth & Reeves, Aaron, 2023. "The sins of the parents: conceptualising adult-oriented reforms to family policy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121533, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Gordon Dahl & Katrine Loken, 2024. "Families, Public Policies, and the Labor Market," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2423, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin).
    6. Mari, Gabriele, 2023. "Less for more? Cuts to child benefits, family adjustments, and long-run child outcomes in larger families," SocArXiv e3n82, Center for Open Science.
    7. Ruth Patrick & Aaron Reeves & Kitty Stewart, 2023. "The sins of the parents: Conceptualising adult-oriented reforms to family policy," CASE Papers /228, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs

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