IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exposure to floods, climate change, and poverty in Vietnam


  • Bangalore, Mook
  • Smith, Andrew
  • Veldkamp, Ted


With 70% of its population living in coastal areas and low-lying deltas, Vietnam is highly exposed to riverine and coastal flooding. This paper conducts a “stress-test” and examines the exposure of the population and poor people in particular to current and future flooding in Vietnam and specifically in Ho Chi Minh City. We develop new high-resolution flood hazard maps at 90 m horizontal resolution, and combine this with spatially-explicit socioeconomic data on poverty at the country and city level, two datasets often kept separate. The national-level analysis finds that a third of today’s population is already exposed to a flood, which occurs once every 25 years, assuming no protection. For the same return period flood under current socioeconomic conditions, climate change may increase the number exposed to 38 to 46% of the population (an increase of 13–27% above current exposure), depending on the severity of sea level rise. While poor districts are not found to be more exposed to floods at the national level, the city-level analysis of Ho Chi Minh City provides evidence that slum areas are more exposed than other urban areas. The results of this paper provide an estimate of the potential exposure under climate change, including for poor people, and can provide input on where to locate future investments in flood risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Bangalore, Mook & Smith, Andrew & Veldkamp, Ted, 2018. "Exposure to floods, climate change, and poverty in Vietnam," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100215, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:100215

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. W. Adger & P. Kelly, 1999. "Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Architecture of Entitlements," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 253-266, September.
    2. Neil Adger, W., 1999. "Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and Extremes in Coastal Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 249-269, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Alvina Erman & Elliot Motte & Radhika Goyal & Akosua Asare & Shinya Takamatsu & Xiaomeng Chen & Silvia Malgioglio & Alexander Skinner & Nobuo Yoshida & Stephane Hallegatte, 2020. "The Road to Recovery the Role of Poverty in the Exposure, Vulnerability and Resilience to Floods in Accra," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 171-193, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jones, Lindsey & d'Errico, Marco, 2019. "Whose resilience matters? Like-for-like comparison of objective and subjective evaluations of resilience," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Mook Bangalore & Andrew Smith & Ted Veldkamp, 2019. "Exposure to Floods, Climate Change, and Poverty in Vietnam," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 79-99, April.
    3. Delphine Boutin, 2014. "Climate vulnerability, communities' resilience and child labour," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 124(4), pages 625-638.
    4. H.M. Tuihedur Rahman & Gordon M. Hickey, 2020. "An Analytical Framework for Assessing Context-Specific Rural Livelihood Vulnerability," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(14), pages 1-26, July.
    5. Barnett, Jon, 2001. "Adapting to Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: The Problem of Uncertainty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 977-993, June.
    6. Xiaorui Zhang & Zhenbo Wang & Jing Lin, 2015. "GIS Based Measurement and Regulatory Zoning of Urban Ecological Vulnerability," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(8), pages 1-19, July.
    7. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-082 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Williamson, Tim & Hesseln, Hayley & Johnston, Mark, 2012. "Adaptive capacity deficits and adaptive capacity of economic systems in climate change vulnerability assessment," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 160-166.
    9. W.Neil Adger, 2001. "Scales of governance and environmental justice for adaptation and mitigation of climate change," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(7), pages 921-931.
    10. Arouri, Mohamed & Nguyen, Cuong & Youssef, Adel Ben, 2015. "Natural Disasters, Household Welfare, and Resilience: Evidence from Rural Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 59-77.
    11. Clara Champalle & James D. Ford & Mya Sherman, 2015. "Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptations in Canadian Arctic Communities," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(7), pages 1-25, July.
    12. Donna Hornby & Adrian Nel & Samuel Chademana & Nompilo Khanyile, 2018. "A Slipping Hold? Farm Dweller Precarity in South Africa’s Changing Agrarian Economy and Climate," Land, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(2), pages 1-25, March.
    13. Erin C. Pischke & M. Azahara Mesa-Jurado & Amarella Eastmond & Jesse Abrams & Kathleen E. Halvorsen, 2018. "Community perceptions of socioecological stressors and risk-reducing strategies in Tabasco, Mexico," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 8(4), pages 441-451, December.
    14. Paolo Prosperi & Thomas Allen & Bruce Cogill & Martine Padilla & Iuri Peri, 2016. "Towards metrics of sustainable food systems: a review of the resilience and vulnerability literature," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 3-19, March.
    15. Donghyun Kim & Jung Eun Kang, 2020. "Building Consensus with Local Residents in Community-Based Adaptation Planning: The Case of Bansong Pilbongoreum Community in Busan, South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(4), pages 1-20, February.
    16. Fahad, Shah & Wang, Jianling, 2018. "Farmers’ risk perception, vulnerability, and adaptation to climate change in rural Pakistan," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 301-309.
    17. Alam, Md. Mahmudul & Taufique, Khan Md. Raziuddin & Sayal, Azizullah, 2019. "Do Climate Changes Lead to Income Inequality? Empirical Study on the Farming Community in Malaysia," SocArXiv 4uvdj, Center for Open Science.
    18. Shahzad Alvi & Faisal Jamil & Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2020. "Do Farmers Adapt to Climate Change? A Macro Perspective," Agriculture, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(6), pages 1-12, June.
    19. Maren A. Lau, 2006. "Adaptation to Sea-level Rise in the People’s Republic of China – Assessing the Institutional Dimension of Alternative Organisational Frameworks," Working Papers FNU-94, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2006.
    20. Bhattarai, Basundhara & Beilin, Ruth & Ford, Rebecca, 2015. "Gender, Agrobiodiversity, and Climate Change: A Study of Adaptation Practices in the Nepal Himalayas," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 122-132.
    21. Stevens, Mark R. & Senbel, Maged, 2017. "Are municipal land use plans keeping pace with global climate change?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-14.

    More about this item


    floods; poverty; Vietnam; exposure; urban development; ES/K006576/1;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:100215. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (LSERO Manager). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.