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Barro-Gordon Revisited: Reputational Equilibria with Inferential Expectations

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  • Timo Henckel

    ()

  • Gordon D. Menzies
  • Nick Prokhovnik
  • Daniel J. Zizzo

Abstract

We incorporate inferential expectations into the Barro-Gordon model (1983a) of time inconsistency and consider reputational equilibria. The range of sustainable equilibria shrinks as the private sector becomes more belief-conservative.

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File URL: http://cbe.anu.edu.au/research/papers/camawpapers/Papers/2010/Henckel_Menzies_Prokhovnik_Zizzo_292010.pdf
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Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2010-29.

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Length: 10 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2010-29
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
  • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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  1. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
  2. Gordon Menzies & Daniel Zizzo, 2006. "Exchange Rate Markets And Conservative Inferential Expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2007-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Friedman, James W, 1971. "A Non-cooperative Equilibrium for Supergames," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(113), pages 1-12, January.
  4. Gordon Menzies & Daniel John Zizzo, 2005. "Inferential Expectations," Research Paper Series 159, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  5. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Carl E. Walsh, 2010. "Monetary Theory and Policy, Third Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262013770, June.
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Cited by:

  1. Bruce Lyons & Gordon Menzies & Daniel Zizzo, 2012. "Conflicting evidence and decisions by agency professionals: an experimental test in the context of merger regulation," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 73(3), pages 465-499, September.
  2. Timo Henckel & Gordon Menzies & Daniel J. Zizzo, 2013. "The Great Recession and the Two Dimensions of European Central Bank Credibility," Working Paper Series 13, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  3. Piotr, Staszkiewicz, 2012. "Model for reputational risk for subsidiaries of non-public group with reciprocal shareholding," MPRA Paper 35812, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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