Incorporating Rigidity In The Timing Structure Of Macroeconomic Games
This paper proposes a simple framework that generalizes the timing structure of macroeconomic (as well as other) games. Building on alternating move games and models of â€˜rational inattentionâ€™ the playersâ€™ actions may be rigid, ie optimally chosen to be infrequent. This rigidity makes the game more dynamic/asynchronous and by linking successive periods it can serve as commitment. Therefore, it can enhance cooperation and often eliminate inefficient equilibrium outcomes. We apply the framework to the Kydland-Prescott-Barro-Gordon monetary policy game and derive the conditions - the sufficient degree of commitment - under which the influential time-inconsistency problem disappears. Interestingly, (i) this can happen even in a finite game (possibly as short as two periods), (ii) the required degree of commitment may be rather (even infinitesimally) low and (iii) the policymakerÂ’s commitment may substitute for his conservatism and/or patience in achieving credibility. The analysis makes several predictions about explicit inflation targeting and central bank independence (and their relationship) that we show to be empirically supported. In doing so we show that our theoretical results reconcile some conflicting empirical findings of the literature.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2007|
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- Waller, Christopher J & Walsh, Carl E, 1996. "Central-Bank Independence, Economic Behavior, and Optimal Term Lengths," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1139-1153, December.
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- Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2002. "Does it pay to be transparent? international evidence form central bank forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 99-118.
- Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Schaling, E. & Hoeberichts, M.M., 1998.
"Central bank independence : A sensitivity analysis,"
Other publications TiSEM
ebcf989c-472b-4d24-b7c2-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Schaling, E. & Hoeberichts, M.M., 1997. "Central Bank independence : A sensitivity analysis," Discussion Paper 1997-10, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Schaling, E. & Hoeberichts, M.M., 1997. "Central bank independence : A sensitivity analysis," Other publications TiSEM 59020a3a-1cb8-4e8f-a2b8-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- David Backus & John Driffill, 1985. "Rational Expectations and Policy Credibility Following a Change in Regime," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 211-221.
- Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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