The Importance of Borrowersâ€™ History on Credit Behavior: The Mexican Experience
Credit sharing information mechanisms represent the institutional answer to the asymmetric information problems inherent to credit markets. It is generally accepted that sharing information is beneficial for the participant institutions, however, there are few studies that have measured the impact of past behavioral information on risk analysis. Applying a Probit model to the micro level database gathered by the Mexican Public Registry of Credit Information we find that historical variables, like previous defaults and previous missing payments are highly significant in explaining the probability of default. In particular, having defaulted a loan in the past, increases current loanâ€™s default probability in 30 percentage points. We also find that the longer the borrower has been in the market and the larger the loan, the less likely it is that the current loan will be defaulted on. Additionally, we measure the effects of macroeconomic fluctuations over individual loansâ€™ probability of default; we find that inflation significantly increases it while economic growth reduces it. Our results imply that effort should be exerted to develop more complete databases on individualsâ€™ past behavior. This is particularly relevant in the Latin American context were the credit sharing industry is not very developed
|Date of creation:||11 Aug 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Phone: 1 212 998 3820|
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/pastmeetings.asp
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Padilla, A.J. & Pagano, M., 1994.
"Endogenous Communication Among Lenders and Entrepreneurial Incentives,"
9407, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- Padilla, A Jorge & Pagano, Marco, 1997. "Endogenous Communication among Lenders and Entrepreneurial Incentives," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 205-36.
- Padilla, Atilano Jorge & Pagano, Marco, 1996. "Endogenous Communication Among Lenders and Entrepreneurial Incentives," CEPR Discussion Papers 1295, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pagano, Marco & Jappelli, Tullio, 1993.
" Information Sharing in Credit Markets,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1693-1718, December.
- Padilla, A.J. & Pagano, M., 1996.
"Sharing Default Information as a Borrower Discipline Device,"
73, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
- Padilla, A. Jorge & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Sharing default information as a borrower discipline device," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1951-1980, December.
- A. Jorge Padilla & Marco Pagano, 1999. "Sharing Default Information as a Borrower Discipline Device," CSEF Working Papers 21, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- A Jorge Padilla & Marco Pagano, 1994. "Sharing Default Information as a Borrower Discipline Device," CEPR Financial Markets Paper 0043, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ..
- Padilla, A.J. & Pagano, M., 1999. "Sharing Default Information as a Borrower Discipline Device," Papers 9911, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- A. Jorge Padilla & Marco Pagano, 1996. "Sharing Default Information as a Borrower Discipline Device," Papers 0073, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
- Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 1999.
"Information Sharing, Lending and Defaults: Cross-Country Evidence,"
CSEF Working Papers
22, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2002. "Information sharing, lending and defaults: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(10), pages 2017-2045, October.
- Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 1999. "Information Sharing, Lending and Defaults: Cross-Country Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2184, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Negrin, José Luis, 2001. "Mecanismos para compartir información crediticia. Evidencia internacional y la experiencia mexicana," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(271), pages 405-466, julio-sep.
- DANIEL B. KLElN, 1992. "Promise Keeping In The Great Society: A Model Of Credit Information Sharing," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 117-136, 07.
- Kallberg, Jarl G. & Udell, Gregory F., 2003. "The value of private sector business credit information sharing: The US case," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 449-469, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:226. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.