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Climate Policy Beyond Kyoto: Quo Vadis?

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  • Andreas Loschel
  • Christoph Bohringer

Abstract

We investigate the possible future of Post-Kyoto climate policies until 2020. Based on a cross-impact analysis, we first evaluate an expert poll to identify the most likely Post-Kyoto climate policy scenarios. We then use a computable general equilibrium model to assess the economic implications of these scenarios. We find that Post-Kyoto agreements will include only small reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, with abatement duties predominantly assigned to the industrialized countries, while developing countries remain uncommitted, but can sell emission abatement to the industrialized world. Equity rules to allocate abatement duties are mainly based on sovereignty or ability-to-pay. Global adjustment costs to Post-Kyoto policies are very moderate, but regional costs to fuel exporting countries can be substantial because of distinct terms-of-trade effects on fossil fuel markets. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd..
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  • Andreas Loschel & Christoph Bohringer, 2004. "Climate Policy Beyond Kyoto: Quo Vadis?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 13, Royal Economic Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2004:13
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, P. & Wang, M., 2016. "Carbon dioxide emissions allocation: A review," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 47-59.
    2. Andries Hof & Michel Elzen & Detlef Vuuren, 2009. "Environmental effectiveness and economic consequences of fragmented versus universal regimes: what can we learn from model studies?," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 39-62, February.
    3. Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang, 2008. "Cross-impact balances," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(14), pages 3689-3700.

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