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The rise of China in academic research

Author

Listed:
  • Laeven, Luc
  • Popov, Alexander
  • Cozariuc, Catalina

Abstract

Analyzing more than 300,000 articles across 40 top-tier journals between 2000 and 2022, this study demonstrates that China’s 2006 National Medium-and Long-Term Plan for the Development of Science and Technology catalyzed a surge in publication volume and citations, propelling China past the United States as the world’s leading producer of scientific research. Controlling for national income, population, and human capital, we find these gains are concentrated in fields explicitly targeted by the government’s plan—physics, chemistry, biology, and medicine—while fields excluded from the plan, such as mathematics and economics, show significantly less growth. Our findings suggest that targeted state-led investment can effectively drive scientific progress, at least within a centrally planned economy. JEL Classification: F63, H52, I28, O38, P27

Suggested Citation

  • Laeven, Luc & Popov, Alexander & Cozariuc, Catalina, 2026. "The rise of China in academic research," Working Paper Series 3241, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263241
    Note: 261593
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

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