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Growth is Getting Harder to Find, Not Ideas

Author

Listed:
  • Teresa C. Fort
  • Nathan Goldschlag
  • Jack Liang
  • Peter K. Schott
  • Nikolas Zolas

Abstract

Relatively flat US productivity growth versus rising R&D expenditures is often interpreted as evidence that ideas are getting harder to find. We build a new 45-year panel tracking the universe of US firms' patenting to investigate the micro underpinnings of this conclusion, separately examining the relationships between research inputs and ideas (patents) versus ideas and growth. We find that average patents per R&D input are increasing, the elasticity of patents to R&D inputs is flat or rising, and there is not systematic evidence of a secular decline in patenting after controlling for research inputs. We then document a positive, significant, and fairly steady relationship between firms' patent and labor productivity growth rates. Average firm growth after controlling for patent growth, however, declines. Together, these results suggest that firms' innovative efforts play a key role in sustaining growth that has not diminished over the last four decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Teresa C. Fort & Nathan Goldschlag & Jack Liang & Peter K. Schott & Nikolas Zolas, 2026. "Growth is Getting Harder to Find, Not Ideas," NBER Working Papers 35182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35182
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • O36 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Open Innovation
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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