IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20202392.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Baldwin vs. Cecchini revisited: the growth impact of the European Single Market

Author

Listed:
  • Sondermann, David
  • Lehtimäki, Jonne

Abstract

The European Single Market created a common market for millions of Europeans. However, thirty years after its introduction, it appears that the benefits of the common European project are occasionally being questioned at least by some parts of the population. Others, by contrast, strive for deeper integration. Against this background, we empirically gauge the growth effect that arose from the Single Market. Using the Synthetic Control Method, we establish the growth premium for the Single Market overall and for its founding members. Broadly in line with the predictions made by Baldwin (1989) at the onset of the Single Market project, we find significantly higher real GDP per capita for the overall Single Market area of around 12-22%. In comparison, smaller EU Member States seem to have benefited somewhat more compared to larger countries. The estimated growth effects underline the case for further deepening and broadening the Single Market where possible. JEL Classification: F13, F14, F15, N14

Suggested Citation

  • Sondermann, David & Lehtimäki, Jonne, 2020. "Baldwin vs. Cecchini revisited: the growth impact of the European Single Market," Working Paper Series 2392, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202392
    Note: 943715
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2392~83000b6b14.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cesar A. Hidalgo & Ricardo Hausmann, 2009. "The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity," Papers 0909.3890, arXiv.org.
    2. Thierry Mayer & Vincent Vicard & Soledad Zignago & Beata Javorcik, 2019. "The cost of non-Europe, revisited," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 34(98), pages 145-199.
    3. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2017. "The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 3-32, Spring.
    4. Bibek Adhikari & Romain Duval & Bingjie Hu & Prakash Loungani, 2018. "Can Reform Waves Turn the Tide? Some Case Studies using the Synthetic Control Method," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 879-910, September.
    5. Maxwell Kellogg & Magne Mogstad & Guillaume Pouliot & Alexander Torgovitsky, 2020. "Combining Matching and Synthetic Control to Trade off Biases from Extrapolation and Interpolation," NBER Working Papers 26624, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Campos, Nauro F. & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Moretti, Luigi, 2019. "Institutional integration and economic growth in Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 88-104.
    7. Bas Straathof & Gert Jan Linders & Arjan Lejour & Jan Möhlmann, 2008. "The internal market and the Dutch economy: implications for trade and economic growth," CPB Document 168.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    8. Puzzello, Laura & Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro, 2018. "Winners and losers from the €uro," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 129-152.
    9. Bas Straathof & Gert Jan Linders & Arjan Lejour & Jan Möhlmann, 2008. "The internal market and the Dutch economy: implications for trade and economic growth," CPB Document 168, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    10. Chris Allen & Michael Gasiorek & Alasdair Smith, 1998. "The competition effects of the Single Market in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 440-486.
    11. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    12. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    13. Cristina Fernández & Pilar García Perea, 2015. "The impact of the euro on euro area GDP per capita," Working Papers 1530, Banco de España.
    14. Amit K. Khandelwal & Peter K. Schott & Shang-Jin Wei, 2013. "Trade Liberalization and Embedded Institutional Reform: Evidence from Chinese Exporters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2169-2195, October.
    15. Andreas Billmeier & Tommaso Nannicini, 2013. "Assessing Economic Liberalization Episodes: A Synthetic Control Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 983-1001, July.
    16. Karl Aiginger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2004. "The Single Market and Geographic Concentration in Europe," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, February.
    17. Eichengreen, Barry & Boltho, Andrea, 2008. "The Economic Impact of European Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 6820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Mario Mariniello & André Sapir & Alessio Terzi, 2015. "The long road towards the European single market," Working Papers 873, Bruegel.
    19. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    20. T. Scitovsky, 1960. "International Trade and Economic Integration as a Means of Over-Coming the Disadvantages of a Small Nation," International Economic Association Series, in: E. A. G. Robinson (ed.), Economic Consequences of the Size of Nations, chapter 0, pages 282-290, Palgrave Macmillan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jonne Lehtimäki & David Sondermann, 2022. "Baldwin versus Cecchini revisited: the growth impact of the European Single Market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 603-635, August.
    2. Robert Kraemer & Jonne Lehtimäki, 2024. "Government debt, European Institutions and fiscal rules: a synthetic control approach," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(4), pages 1112-1157, August.
    3. Gabriel, Ricardo Duque & Pessoa, Ana Sofia, 2024. "Adopting the euro: A synthetic control approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Campos, Nauro F. & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Moretti, Luigi, 2019. "Institutional integration and economic growth in Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 88-104.
    5. Samuel Verevis & Murat Üngör, 2021. "What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 20-50, February.
    6. Barseghyan, Gayane, 2019. "Sanctions and counter-sanctions : What did they do?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    7. David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
    8. Bibek Adhikari, 2022. "A Guide to Using the Synthetic Control Method to Quantify the Effects of Shocks, Policies, and Shocking Policies," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 67(1), pages 46-63, March.
    9. Esteban Colla‐De‐Robertis & Rafael Garduno Rivera, 2021. "The effect of a free trade agreement with the United States on member countries' per capita GDP: A synthetic control analysis," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 1129-1145, August.
    10. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Echevarría, Cruz A. & Hasancebi, Serhat & García-Enríquez, Javier, 2022. "Economic Effects of Macao’s Integration with Mainland China: A Causal Inference Study," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 37(2), pages 179-215.
    12. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto & Vitor Possebom, 2020. "Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 510-532, March.
    13. Bibek Adhikari & Romain Duval & Bingjie Hu & Prakash Loungani, 2018. "Can Reform Waves Turn the Tide? Some Case Studies using the Synthetic Control Method," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 879-910, September.
    14. Irene Botosaru & Bruno Ferman, 2019. "On the role of covariates in the synthetic control method," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 22(2), pages 117-130.
    15. Samer Matta & Michael Bleaney & Simon Appleton, 2022. "The economic impact of political instability and mass civil protest," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 253-270, March.
    16. Dennis Essers & Stefaan Ide, 2017. "The IMF and precautionary lending : An empirical evaluation of the selectivity and effectiveness of the flexible credit line," Working Paper Research 323, National Bank of Belgium.
    17. Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo & Helery Tasane, 2023. "Regional Economic Impacts of the Øresund Cross-Border Fixed Link: Cui Bono?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10557, CESifo.
    18. Flamini, Alessandro & Jahanshahi, Babak & Mohaddes, Kamiar, 2021. "Illegal drugs and public corruption: Crack based evidence from California," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    19. Emiliano Toni & Pablo Paniagua & Patricio 'Ordenes, 2024. "Policy Changes and Growth Slowdown: Assessing the Lost Decade of the Latin American Miracle," Papers 2407.02003, arXiv.org.
    20. Nauro Campos & Fabrizio Coricelli & Luigi Moretti,, 2020. "Choosing Institutional over Economic Integration: Are There Growth Effects?," Working Papers hal-03028143, HAL.
    21. Tomasz Serwach, 2023. "The European Union and within‐country income inequalities. The case of the new member states," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 1890-1939, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; Single Market; synthetic control method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202392. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.