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Fiscal sustainability and public debt in an endogenous growth model

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  • Vidal, Jean-Pierre
  • Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús

Abstract

This paper investigates fiscal sustainability in an overlapping generations economy with endogenous growth coming from human capital formation through educational spending. We assess how budgetary imbalances affect economic dynamics and the outlook for economic growth, thereby providing a rationale for fiscal rules ensuring sustainability. Our results show that the appropriate response of fiscal policy to temporary shocks is not trivial in the absence of fiscal rules. Fiscal rules allow for a timely reaction, thereby avoiding possibly disruptive fiscal adjustment in the future: the more adjustment is delayed, the larger is its necessary scale. We perform a rough calibration of the model to simulate the effects of a demographic shock (change in the population growth rate) under different fiscal policy scenarios. JEL Classification: E62, H63, H55, O41, E17

Suggested Citation

  • Vidal, Jean-Pierre & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2004. "Fiscal sustainability and public debt in an endogenous growth model," Working Paper Series 395, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2004395
    Note: 147733
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Richard Agénor & Devrim Yilmaz, 2006. "The Tyranny of Rules: Fiscal Discipline, Productive Spending, and Growth," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0616, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    2. Yasuoka, Masaya & Oguro, Kazumasa, 2015. "Public Education, Pension and Debt Policy," CIS Discussion paper series 649, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. Schuknecht, Ludger, 2004. "EU fiscal rules: issues and lessons from political economy," Working Paper Series 421, European Central Bank.
    4. T. Buyse & F. Heylen, 2012. "Leaving the empirical (battle)ground: Output and welfare effects of fiscal consolidation in general equilibrium," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/826, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. Asad Nisar & Rabia Rafique, 2025. "Fiscal strategies for sustainable debt management in developing economies: dynamic common correlated effects approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1-31, August.
    6. Kuantan, Dhaha Praviandi & Siregar, Hermanto & Ratnawati, Anny & Juhro, Solikin M., 2021. "Corporate Investment Behavior and Level of Participation in the Global Value Chain: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," MPRA Paper 115417, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Oct 2021.
    7. Abderrahim Chibi & Sidi Mohamed Chekouri & Mohamed Benbouziane, 2015. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Algeria: a Nonlinear Approach," Working Papers 962, Economic Research Forum, revised Oct 2015.
    8. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2005. "Assessing The Mean Reversion Behavior Of Fiscal Policy: The Case Of Asian Countries," Macroeconomics 0504002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Jia, Junyi & Chen, Jingwei & Yang, Yao, 2025. "Bond default of super-large real estate company and government debt risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    10. Amer TABAKOVIĆ, 2019. "Public Spending in an OLG Economy with Endogenous Technological Change - Financing Matters -," Departmental Working Papers 2019-08, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    11. N. Bilkic & B. Carreras Painter & T. Gries, 2013. "Unsustainable sovereign debt—is the Euro crisis only the tip of the iceberg?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-45, March.
    12. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Devrim Yilmaz, 2012. "Simple Dynamics of Public Debt with Productive Public Goods," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 165, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    13. Abderrahim Chibi & Sidi Mohamed Chekouri & Mohamed Benbouziane, 2019. "The dynamics of fiscal policy in Algeria: sustainability and structural change," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, December.
    14. Ioan-Radu PETRARIU & Lucian Constantin VÎLCU & Iulian Cornel LOLEA & Liana VLADU, 2020. "Fiscal sustainability in Romania," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(625), W), pages 357-368, Winter.
    15. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2010. "Mean Reversion Of The Fiscal Conduct In 24 Developing Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(4), pages 302-325, July.
    16. Tetsuo Ono, 2020. "Fiscal rules in a monetary economy: Implications for growth and welfare," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(1), pages 190-219, February.
    17. Philippe Michel & Leopold Von Thadden & Jean‐Pierre Vidal, 2010. "Debt Stabilizing Fiscal Rules," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 12(5), pages 923-941, October.
    18. P R Agénor & D Yilmaz, 2006. "The Tyranny of Rules: Fiscal Discipline, Productive Spending, and Growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 73, Economics, The University of Manchester.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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