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Can Rumors and Other Uninformative Messages Cause Illiquidity ?




In the model, a group of investors are invited to participate to a high-yield collective project. The project succeeds only if a minimum participation rate is reached. Before taking their decision, investors receive a vague statement about the outcome of a past investment decision. If investors believe that the message has an impact on the beliefs of the others, the problem can be analyzed as a typical global game and would present a threshold equilibrium. If not, in theory both an equilibrium where all invest and an equilibrium where no one invests can occur. In a Lab experiment, a large number of subjects adopt switching strategies consistent with the threshold equilibrium and appear to respond to the orientation of the message. Insights apply to contagion and market manipulation episodes.

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  • Radu, Vranceanu & Besancenot, Damien & Dubart, Delphine, 2013. "Can Rumors and Other Uninformative Messages Cause Illiquidity ?," ESSEC Working Papers WP1309, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School, revised Jun 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebg:essewp:dr-13009

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item


    Illiquidity; Rumors; Market panic; Global games; Strategic uncertainty; Experiments;

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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