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Can Rumors and Other Uninformative Messages Cause Illiquidity ?

In the model, a group of investors are invited to participate to a high-yield collective project. The project succeeds only if a minimum participation rate is reached. Before taking their decision, investors receive a vague statement about the outcome of a past investment decision. If investors believe that the message has an impact on the beliefs of the others, the problem can be analyzed as a typical global game and would present a threshold equilibrium. If not, in theory both an equilibrium where all invest and an equilibrium where no one invests can occur. In a Lab experiment, a large number of subjects adopt switching strategies consistent with the threshold equilibrium and appear to respond to the orientation of the message. Insights apply to contagion and market manipulation episodes.

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Paper provided by ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School in its series ESSEC Working Papers with number WP1309.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2013
Date of revision: Jun 2014
Handle: RePEc:ebg:essewp:dr-13009
Contact details of provider: Postal: ESSEC Research Center, BP 105, 95021 Cergy, France
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  15. J. B. Van Huyck & R. C. Battalio & R. O. Beil, 2010. "Tacit coordination games, strategic uncertainty, and coordination failure," Levine's Working Paper Archive 661465000000000393, David K. Levine.
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  18. Camille Cornand & Franck Heinemann, 2013. "Measuring Agents’ Reaction to Private and Public Information in Games with Strategic Complementarities," Working Papers 1341, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
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