Managerial discretion and optimal financing policies with cash flow uncertainty
Building on the work of Stulz (1990), this paper analyzes the impact of managerial discretion on optimal leverage within an agency cost model of corporate financing. Under the assumption that stockholders do not know with certainty the mean of the cash flow distribution, we argue that leverage fails to control for the amount of cash the manager can misappropriate in personal projects. We develop a model of a firm’s value maximization problem that predicts that as expected earnings uncertainty increases the firm will decrease its optimal level of borrowing. In a second part, we test this proposition on a panel of non–financial UK firms, by investigating the determinants of firms’ performance and allowing for endogeneity of capital structure decisions. The estimates confirm that earnings uncertainty, as measured by the volatility in monthly consensus forecasts of individual companies’ earnings per share, negatively affects corporate leverage. Furthermore, new empirical support is found to the agency cost view that corporate performance is positively correlated with leverage when poorly managed firms are selected.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://phdschool-economics.dse.uniroma1.it/website/|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Franck Bancel & Usha R. Mittoo, 2004. "Cross-Country Determinants of Capital Structure Choice: A Survey of European Firms," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 33(4), Winter.
- Michael J. Barclay & Clifford W. Smith & Ross L. Watts, 1995. "The Determinants Of Corporate Leverage And Dividend Policies," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 7(4), pages 4-19.
- Stephen R. Bond & Jason G. Cummins, 2004. "Uncertainty and investment: an empirical investigation using data on analysts' profits forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Gauri Bhat & Ole-Kristian Hope & Tony Kang, 2006. "Does corporate governance transparency affect the accuracy of analyst forecasts?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 46(5), pages 715-732.
- Steve Bond & Alexander Klemm & Rain Newton-Smith & Murtaza Syed & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2004.
"The roles of expected profitability, Tobin's Q and cash flow in econometric models of company investment,"
IFS Working Papers
W04/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Vlieghe, Gertjan & Stephen Bond & Alexander Klemm & Rain Newton-Smith & Murtaza Syed, 2003. "The roles of expected profitability, Tobin's Q and cash flow in econometric models of company investment," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 212, Royal Economic Society.
- Stephen Bond & Alexander Klemm & Rain Newton-Smith & Murtaza Syed & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2004. "The roles of expected profitability, Tobin's Q and cash flow in econometric models of company investment," Bank of England working papers 222, Bank of England.
- Vivien Beattie & Alan Goodacre & Sarah Jane Thomson, 2006. "Corporate Financing Decisions: UK Survey Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9-10), pages 1402-1434.
- Chittenden, Francis & Hall, Graham & Hutchinson, Patrick, 1996. " Small Firm Growth, Access to Capital Markets and Financial Structure: Review of Issues and an Empirical Investigation," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 59-67, February.
- Bhushan, Ravi, 1989. "Firm characteristics and analyst following," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 255-274, July.
- A. A. Bevan & J. Danbolt, 2004. "Testing for inconsistencies in the estimation of UK capital structure determinants," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 55-66.
- Aydogan Alti, 2003. "How Sensitive Is Investment to Cash Flow When Financing Is Frictionless?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 707-722, 04.
- Pablo de Andres Alonso & Felix J. Lopez Iturriaga & Juan A. Rodriguez Sanz, 2005. "Financial decisions and growth opportunities: a Spanish firm's panel data analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 391-407.
- Bomberger, William A, 1996. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 381-92, August.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Florencio Lopez-de-Silane, 1993.
"What do Firms do with Cash Windfalls?,"
NBER Working Papers
4258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- AYDOĞAN ALTI, 2006. "How Persistent Is the Impact of Market Timing on Capital Structure?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1681-1710, 08.
- Sudip Datta & Mai Iskandar-Datta & Kartik Raman, 2005. "Managerial Stock Ownership and the Maturity Structure of Corporate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2333-2350, October.
- Abimbola Adedeji, 1997. ""Discussion of" Agency and Tax Explanations of Security Issuance Decisions," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(7&8), pages 963-969.
- Barclay, Michael J. & Marx, Leslie M. & Smith, Clifford Jr., 2003. "The joint determination of leverage and maturity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 149-167, March.
- Alan Bevan & Jo Danbolt, 2002. "Capital structure and its determinants in the UK - a decompositional analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 159-170.
- Francis Covas & Wouter J. Den Haan, 2007. "Cyclical Behavior of Debt and Equity Using a Panel of Canadian Firms," Staff Working Papers 07-44, Bank of Canada.
- Jason G. Cummins & Kevin A. Hassett & Stephen D. Oliner, 1999.
"Investment behavior, observable expectations, and internal funds,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1999-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Jason G. Cummins & Kevin A. Hassett & Stephen D. Oliner, 2006. "Investment Behavior, Observable Expectations, and Internal Funds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 796-810, June.
- Cummins, Jason & Hassett, Kevin & Oliner, Stephen, 1997. "Investment Behavior, Observable Expectations and Internal Funds," Working Papers 97-30, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Aggarwal, Raj & Zhao, Xinlei, 2007. "The leverage-value relationship puzzle: An industry effects resolution," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(4), pages 286-297.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2007:i:12:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
- Michael J. Barclay & Clifford W. Smith, 1996. "On Financial Architecture: Leverage, Maturity, And Priority," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 8(4), pages 4-17.
- Asquith, Paul & Mullins, David Jr., 1986. "Equity issues and offering dilution," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 61-89.
- Xin Chang & Sudipto Dasgupta & Gilles Hilary, 2006. "Analyst Coverage and Financing Decisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 3009-3048, December.
- Chung, Kee H. & Jo, Hoje, 1996. "The Impact of Security Analysts' Monitoring and Marketing Functions on the Market Value of Firms," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(04), pages 493-512, December.
- Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello & Michael S. Weisbach, 2004. "The Cash Flow Sensitivity of Cash," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1777-1804, 08.
- Avramov, Doron & Chordia, Tarun & Jostova, Gergana & Philipov, Alexander, 2009. "Dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts and credit rating," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 83-101, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dsc:wpaper:3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sardoni)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.