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Sunspots in a Cash-in-Advance Model: A Quantitative Assessment


  • David R. Stockman

    () (Department of Economics, University of Delaware)


Does consideration of sunspot equilibria in the cash-in-advance model help the model match key features in the US macroeconomic data? One can use the cash-in-advance model to generate predictions of macro time series via an equilibrium of the model. However, when restricted to minimum state variable stationary rational expectations equilibria, the model's predictions do not match the data well. Recent work by Woodford (1994) and Huo (1995) demonstrates that this model may exhibit a much larger class of equilibria including stationary and non-stationary sunspot equilibria. Does expanding the predictive content of the CIA model by considering this larger set of equilibria help the model match the US data? In this paper, the sunspot equilibria of Woodford (1994) and Huo (1995) are quantitatively explored to answer this question.

Suggested Citation

  • David R. Stockman, 2003. "Sunspots in a Cash-in-Advance Model: A Quantitative Assessment," Working Papers 03-12, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:dlw:wpaper:03-12

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hodrick, Robert J & Kocherlakota, Narayana R & Lucas, Deborah, 1991. "The Variability of Velocity in Cash-in-Advance Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 358-384, April.
    2. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January.
    3. Harrison, Sharon G. & Weder, Mark, 2002. "Tracing externalities as sources of indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 851-867, May.
    4. Nathan Balke & Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "Appendix B: Historical Data," NBER Chapters,in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 781-850 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Stockman, David R., 2007. "Sunspots in a cash-in-advance model: A quantitative assessment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 123-144, March.
    6. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
    7. Huo, Teh-Ming, 1995. "Stationary sunspot equilibrium in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 831-843, May.
    8. Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 345-380.
    9. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 2000. "Endogenous Business Cycles and the Dynamics of Output, Hours, and Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1136-1159, December.
    10. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2000. "Price level determinacy and monetary policy under a balanced-budget requirement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 211-246, February.
    11. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier.
    12. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Stokey, Nancy L, 1987. "Money and Interest in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 491-513, May.
    13. Weder, Mark, 2000. "Animal spirits, technology shocks and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 273-295, February.
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    1. Stockman, David R., 2007. "Sunspots in a cash-in-advance model: A quantitative assessment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 123-144, March.

    More about this item


    dynamics; cash-in-advance; sunspots.;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical


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