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Abortion Legalization and Adolescent Fertility: New Evidence for Uruguay Based on the Synthetic Control Method

Author

Listed:
  • Cecilia Velázquez

    (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP, CENEP & CINVE)

Abstract

Following abortion legalization in Uruguay in late 2012, adolescent fertility rate fell by more than half. This paper aims at establishing a causality relationship. To estimate the impact of the abortion reform on adolescent fertility I use the Synthetic Control Method by comparing trends of Uruguay with Latin America and the Caribbean countries with restrictive abortion laws. Results suggest adolescent fertility rate was reduced in the postreform period by an average of 8.3 births per 1,000 girls aged 15-19, a decline of almost 15% with respect to the synthetic control unit. In-space placebos indicate this effect is statistically significant at the 5% level. This conclusion holds after conducting an in-time placebo test and a leave-one-out test. To the present time, evidence on the impact of Uruguayan abortion legalization on adolescent fertility that has addressed endogeneity is mixed, and based entirely on identification strategies that exploit different sources of exogenous within-country variation that determines the exposure to the reform. My contribution here is to exploit between-country variation, bringing new evidence to the on-going debate.

Suggested Citation

  • Cecilia Velázquez, 2024. "Abortion Legalization and Adolescent Fertility: New Evidence for Uruguay Based on the Synthetic Control Method," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0339, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    • Handle: RePEc:dls:wpaper:0339
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jonathan Gruber & Phillip Levine & Douglas Staiger, 1999. "Abortion Legalization and Child Living Circumstances: Who is the "Marginal Child"?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 263-291.
    2. Libertad González & Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Natalia Nollenberger & Judit Vall Castello, 2018. "The Effect of Abortion Legalization on Fertility, Marriage and Long-term Outcomes for Women," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2018-08, FEDEA.
    3. Cristian Pop-Eleches, 2010. "The Supply of Birth Control Methods, Education, and Fertility: Evidence from Romania," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(4), pages 971-997.
    4. Cecilia Velázquez & Wanda Cabella, 2022. "Abortion Legalization in Uruguay: Effects on Adolescent Fertility," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0298, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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