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Manufacturing Work Beyond Manufacturing Industries: A Reassessment of Structural Change

Author

Listed:
  • Dominik Boddin
  • Thilo Kroeger

Abstract

This paper studies the labor market impact of structural change by distinguishing between industry- and occupation-based measures of manufacturing and service employment. Using German data from 1975–2019, we find that 67% of manufacturing jobs lost in manufacturing industries are offset by new manufacturing jobs in service industries. Linking these aggregate patterns to worker-level outcomes, we show that the severity of displacement costs depends on the occupation–sector characteristics of the next job. Workers who retain manufacturing occupations in the service sector experience employment trajectories comparable to those remaining in manufacturing, indicating that structural change is less disruptive than commonly perceived.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominik Boddin & Thilo Kroeger, 2025. "Manufacturing Work Beyond Manufacturing Industries: A Reassessment of Structural Change," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2144, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2144
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • L23 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Organization of Production

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