Economic Growth and Demography
The goal of this article is to discuss the interaction between Russian demographic problems and its specialization on the extraction of natural resources. We have several simultaneous processes since 1990s: specialization in extraction of natural resources and demographic problem caused by low fertility in 1990s. Russia has no labor scarcity at present, but will face it in 10 years. Also, its proven oil resources are only for 20 years, and this calls for a necessity of economic diversification. While resource-extraction technology is less labor intensive, movement to technological development will require more labor, and this labor should be skilled. Thus, Russia faces a problem of optimal transition from resource extraction to technological development with simultaneous labor training in the environment of its growing scarcity. Capital from resource export can be used for both investment in new technologies and demographic recovery. Fertility is also endogenous here, depending on consumption level. The policy implications are very important. While there is little reason for boosting fertility initially (since extraction sector is not labor intensive), demography has high inertia, and it will be too late after, especially when oil resources will be close to depletion. The formal modelling is done is the framework of two sector growth model. A sequence of models of dynamic growth, starting from more simple towards more complex, is suggested.
|Length:||21 pages JEL Classification:|
|Date of creation:||Sep 2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Niels Bohrs Vej 9, 6700 Esbjerg|
Phone: +45 6550 2233
Fax: +45 6550 1090
Web page: http://degit.sam.sdu.dk/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ksenia Yudaeva, 2002. "Globalization and Inequality in CIS Countries: Role of Institutions," Working Papers w0025, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
- Robert J. Barro, 2013.
"Inflation and Economic Growth,"
Annals of Economics and Finance,
Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
- Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Inflation and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Barro, 2012. "Inflation and Economic Growth," CEMA Working Papers 568, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Atkinson,Anthony Barnes & Micklewright,John, 1992. "Economic Transformation in Eastern Europe and the Distribution of Income," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521438827, February.
- Atkinson,Anthony Barnes & Micklewright,John, 1992. "Economic Transformation in Eastern Europe and the Distribution of Income," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521433297.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c016_061. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jan Pedersen)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.