IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/deg/conpap/c016_061.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economic Growth and Demography

Author

Listed:
  • Yuri Yegorov

Abstract

The goal of this article is to discuss the interaction between Russian demographic problems and its specialization on the extraction of natural resources. We have several simultaneous processes since 1990s: specialization in extraction of natural resources and demographic problem caused by low fertility in 1990s. Russia has no labor scarcity at present, but will face it in 10 years. Also, its proven oil resources are only for 20 years, and this calls for a necessity of economic diversification. While resource-extraction technology is less labor intensive, movement to technological development will require more labor, and this labor should be skilled. Thus, Russia faces a problem of optimal transition from resource extraction to technological development with simultaneous labor training in the environment of its growing scarcity. Capital from resource export can be used for both investment in new technologies and demographic recovery. Fertility is also endogenous here, depending on consumption level. The policy implications are very important. While there is little reason for boosting fertility initially (since extraction sector is not labor intensive), demography has high inertia, and it will be too late after, especially when oil resources will be close to depletion. The formal modelling is done is the framework of two sector growth model. A sequence of models of dynamic growth, starting from more simple towards more complex, is suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuri Yegorov, 2011. "Economic Growth and Demography," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_061, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  • Handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c016_061
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://degit.sam.sdu.dk/papers/degit_16/c016_061.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ksenia Yudaeva, 2002. "Globalization and Inequality in CIS Countries: Role of Institutions," Working Papers w0025, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    2. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    3. Atkinson,Anthony Barnes & Micklewright,John, 1992. "Economic Transformation in Eastern Europe and the Distribution of Income," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521438827, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c016_061. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jan Pedersen). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iehhsdk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.