Does Modern Econometrics replicate the Phillips Curve?
This paper reexamines the existence of a long-run relationship between wages and unemployment in the U.K., with data over the period 1860-1913 used by A.W. Phillips to derive the well-known Phillips Curve. Using Johansen's maximum likelihood method of testing for cointegration, a long-run inverse relationship is indeed depicted between the rate of inflation and the unemployment rate. However, the main impact of deviations from this long-run equilibrium is on the unemployment rate rather than the rate of inflation.
|Date of creation:||01 Jun 1996|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Place Montesquieu 3, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)|
Fax: +32 10473945
Web page: https://uclouvain.be/en/research-institutes/immaq/ires
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993.
"Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March.
- Engle, R. & Hendry, D., 1990. "Testing Super Exogeneity And Invariance In Regression Models," Economics Series Working Papers 99100, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Bean, Charles R, 1994. "European Unemployment: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 573-619, June.
- C Bean, 1992. "European Unemployment: A Survey," CEP Discussion Papers dp0071, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Engle, Robert F & Hendry, David F & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1983. "Exogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 277-304, March.
- ENGLE, Robert F. & HENDRY, David F. & RICHARD, Jean-François, "undated". "Exogeneity," CORE Discussion Papers RP 516, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Engle, Robert F & Hendry, David F & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1979. "Exogeneity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 162, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
- Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: An overview," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 251-280, June.
- Neil R. Ericsson, 1991. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: an overview," International Finance Discussion Papers 415, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
- Hendry, David F & Doornik, Jurgen A, 1994. "Modelling Linear Dynamic Econometric Systems," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, February.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
- Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
- Wulwick, Nancy J, 1989. "Phillips' Approximate Regression," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 170-188, January.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Gilbert, C L, 1976. "The Original Phillips Curve Estimates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 43(169), pages 51-57, February.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)