IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cte/wbrepe/wb031704.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Debt refinancing and credit risk

Author

Listed:
  • Forte, Santiago

Abstract

Many firms choose to refinance their debt. We investigate the long run effects of this extended practice on credit ratings and credit spreads. We find that debt refinancing generates systematic rating downgrades unless a minimum firm value growth is observed. Deviations from this growth path imply asymmetric results: A lower value growth generates downgrades and a higher value growth upgrades as expected. However, downgrades will tend to be higher in absolute terms. On the other hand, credit spreads will be independent of the risk free interest rate in the short run, but positively correlated with this rate in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Forte, Santiago, 2003. "Debt refinancing and credit risk," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb031704, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:wbrepe:wb031704
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/rest/api/core/bitstreams/093ec0fa-fc8e-4ca2-9cb2-03ea70046388/content
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
    2. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    3. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Deepak Agrawal & Christopher Mann, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, February.
    4. Hansen, Robert S & Crutchley, Claire, 1990. "Corporate Earnings and Financings: An Empirical Analysis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 347-371, July.
    5. Robert Jarrow, 2017. "Derivatives," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: THE ECONOMIC FOUNDATIONS OF RISK MANAGEMENT Theory, Practice, and Applications, chapter 3, pages 19-28, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Gande, Amar, et al, 1997. "Bank Underwriting of Debt Securities: Modern Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 1175-1202.
    7. Geske, Robert, 1979. "The valuation of compound options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 63-81, March.
    8. Delianedis, Gordon & Geske, Robert, 1998. "Credit Risk and Risk Neutral Default Probabilities: Information About Migrations and Defaults," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt7dm2d31p, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    9. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
    10. Amar Gande & Manju Puri & Anthony Saunders & Ingo Walter, 1995. "Bank underwriting of debt securities: modern evidence," Proceedings 481, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chirkova, Elena (Чиркова, Елена) & Valieva, Dinara (Валиева, Динара) & Menshikov, Yuri (Меньшиков, Юрий) & Nosova, Alexandra (Носова, Александра), 2017. "Debt Restructuring of the Russian Metallurgical Companies Caused by the Crisis of 2008 [Реструктуризации Долга Российскими Металлургическими Компаниями В Кризис 2008 Года]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 174-209, June.
    2. Mario Gomes Augusto & Antonio Pedro Soares Pinto, 2015. "Banking Relationships, Managerial Ownership and Operational Performance: A Simultaneous Equations Approach in the Context of SMEs," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(1), pages 22-42, January.
    3. Maria Carmen Badia Batlle & M. Mercedes Galisteo Rodriguez & M. Teresa Preixens Benedicto, 2006. "Un modelo de riesgo de credito basado en opciones compuestas con barrera. Aplicacion al mercado continuo espanol," Working Papers in Economics 156, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maclachlan, Iain C, 2007. "An empirical study of corporate bond pricing with unobserved capital structure dynamics," MPRA Paper 28416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Yan, Alice Xie & Shi, Jian & Wu, Chunchi, 2008. "Do macroeconomic variables matter for pricing default risk?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 279-291.
    3. Ming Fang & Rui Zhong, 2004. "Default Risk, Firm's Characteristics, and Risk Shifting," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2461, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2005.
    4. Federico Maglione & Maria Elvira Mancino, 2023. "Assessing the Impact of Credit Risk on Equity Options via Information Contents and Compound Options," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-25, October.
    5. Ming Fang & Rui Zhong, 2004. "Default Risk, Firm's Characteristics, and Risk Shifting," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2461, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2005.
    6. Ramaprasad Bhar, 2010. "Stochastic Filtering with Applications in Finance," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7736, August.
    7. Vogl, Konstantin & Maltritz, Dominik & Huschens, Stefan & Karmann, Alexander, 2006. "Country Default Probabilities: Assessing and Backtesting," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 12/06, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    8. Eichler, Stefan & Karmann, Alexander & Maltritz, Dominik, 2010. "Deriving the term structure of banking crisis risk with a compound option approach: The case of Kazakhstan," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2010,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Zhijian (James) Huang & Yuchen Luo, 2016. "Revisiting Structural Modeling of Credit Risk—Evidence from the Credit Default Swap (CDS) Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-20, May.
    10. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
    11. Correia, Ricardo & Población, Javier, 2015. "A structural model with Explicit Distress," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 112-130.
    12. Nusrat Jahan, 2022. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Corporate Credit Spreads: Evidence from Canada," Carleton Economic Papers 22-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    13. Kanak Patel & Ricardo Pereira, 2007. "Expected Default Probabilities in Structural Models: Empirical Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 107-133, January.
    14. Galai, Dan & Raviv, Alon & Wiener, Zvi, 2007. "Liquidation triggers and the valuation of equity and debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3604-3620, December.
    15. Ephraim Clark & Geeta Lakshmi, 2003. "Controlling the risk: a case study of the Indian liquidity crisis 1990-92," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 285-298.
    16. Vink, Dennis, 2007. "An Empirical Analysis of Asset-Backed Securitization," MPRA Paper 10382, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Aug 2008.
    17. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
    18. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    19. Lara Cathcart & Lina El-Jahel, 2006. "Pricing defaultable bonds: a middle-way approach between structural and reduced-form models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 243-253.
    20. Jean-David Fermanian, 2020. "On the Dependence between Default Risk and Recovery Rates in Structural Models," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 140, pages 45-82.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cte:wbrepe:wb031704. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ana Poveda (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.business.uc3m.es/es/index .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.