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Problems, solutions and new problems with the third wave of technological unemployment

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  • Fabio D'Orlando

    (University of Cassino and Lazio Meridionale)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to discuss possible solutions to the “third wave” of technological unemployment and their main drawbacks. The process has just started and will only be fully realized in the future, but its main novelty is already well known and concerns robots (and artificial intelligence) entering the production process. Robots do not simply increase labor productivity, in cooperation with humans, but can totally substitute labor, making it possible to produce commodities without the use of human input. This in turn generates technological unemployment. Past “compensation” theories have argued that technological unemployment could be reabsorbed thanks to wage reduction and demand (and production) increase. But these theories have ignored robots. If robots are more productive and less expensive than humans, wage reduction may be insufficient due to the minimum wage subsistence boundary; and, in any case, an increase in demand would only determine an increase in the production of goods by robots alone, without any impact on human employment. Meanwhile, the resulting mass unemployment will require redistributive policies. The paper discusses the most relevant among these policies, emphasizing their drawbacks and their unwanted implications, and proposes an alternative rooted in Tietenberg’s tradable permits approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio D'Orlando, 2018. "Problems, solutions and new problems with the third wave of technological unemployment," Working Papers 2018-02, Universita' di Cassino, Dipartimento di Economia e Giurisprudenza.
  • Handle: RePEc:csn:wpaper:2018-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • B12 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Classical (includes Adam Smith)
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D30 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - General
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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