IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/csg/ajrcau/297.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is Shutting Krugman's Liquidity Trap the Answer to Japan's Problems?

Author

Listed:
  • Dominic Wilson

Abstract

Paul Krugman has argued that the primary source of Japan’s current problems is that the economy faces a liquidity trap. According to Krugman, this has occurred because Japan confronts negative equilibrium real interest rates for a substantial period. To escape the trap, the Bank of Japan must generate inflationary expectations. This paper extends Krugman’s argument to consider the impact of demographic change on savings and investment and finds that Japan’s equilibrium real interest rate is unlikely to be negative for any considerable period. It argues instead that real forces, particularly productivity shocks and the problems of reallocating resources in their wake, are important contributors to Japan’s predicament. Consequently, simply generating inflation may not deliver sustained improvements in the macroeconomic situation. Successful reform, particularly to the banking sector, may be more important to a sustained recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominic Wilson, 1999. "Is Shutting Krugman's Liquidity Trap the Answer to Japan's Problems?," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 297, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:csg:ajrcau:297
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/pep/pep-297.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bee Yan Aw & Xiaomin Chen & Mark J. Roberts, 1997. "Firm-level Evidence on Productivity Differentials, Turnover, and Exports in Taiwanese Manufacturing," NBER Working Papers 6235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Gower, L. & Wilson, D., 1998. "Non-Performing Assets and Capital Accumulation," Papers 352, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
    3. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1981. "The Current Account and macroeconomic Adjustment in the 1970s," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 201-282.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mariam Camarero & Juan Sapena & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "Modelling Time-Varying Parameters in Panel Data State-Space Frameworks: An Application to the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 87-114, June.
    2. PAUL CASHIN & C. JOHN McDERMOTT, 1998. "Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 346-361, December.
    3. Steinherr, Alfred & Cisotta, Alessandro & Klar, Erik & Sehovic, Kenan, 2006. "Liberalizing Cross-Border Capital Flows: How Effective Are Institutional Arrangements against Crisis in Southeast Asia," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 6, Asian Development Bank.
    4. Razzak, Weshah, 2013. "An Empirical Study of Sectoral-Level Capital Investments in New Zealand," MPRA Paper 52461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Leiderman, Leonardo & Razin, Assaf, 1991. "Determinants of external imbalances: The role of taxes, government spending, and productivity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 421-450, December.
    6. Boyan Jovanovic, 1998. "Michael Gort's Contribution to Economics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 327-337, April.
    7. Philip L. Brock, 2009. "Collateral Constraints and Macroeconomic Adjustment in an Open Economy," Working Papers UWEC-2009-03, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    8. Mahmut Yasar & Roderick M. Rejesus & Ilhami Mintemur, 2006. "Plant-level dynamics and aggregate productivity growth in the Turkish meat-processing industry: Evidence from longitudinal data," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 91-107.
    9. Garg, Bhavesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "Testing the intertemporal sustainability of current account in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the top deficit countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 365-379.
    10. Chen, Been-Lon & Mo, Jie-Ping & Wang, Ping, 2002. "Market frictions, technology adoption and economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 1927-1954, September.
    11. Crt Kostevc, 2005. "Performance of Exporters: Scale Effects or Continuous Productivity Improvements," LICOS Discussion Papers 15905, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
    12. Freund, Caroline, 2005. "Current account adjustment in industrial countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1278-1298, December.
    13. Alfons Palangkaraya, 2013. "On the Relationship between Innovation and Export: The Case of Australian SMEs," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2013n04, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    14. Fugazza, Marco & Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric, 2006. "Can South-South trade Liberalisation Stimulate North-South Trade ?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 21, pages 234-253.
    15. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2010. "Why do many resource-rich countries have negative genuine saving?: Anticipation of better times or rapacious rent seeking," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 28-44, January.
    16. Frederico Oliveira Torres, 2019. "Firm heterogeneity and exports in Portugal - Identifying export potential," GEE Papers 0118, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Apr 2019.
    17. Sebastian M. Saiegh, 2009. "Coalition Governments And Sovereign Debt Crises," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 232-254, July.
    18. Richard H. Clarida & Manuela Goretti & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "Are There Thresholds of Current Account Adjustment in the G7?," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 169-204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Baldwin, John R., 1999. "Un portrait des entrees et des sorties," Direction des études analytiques : documents de recherche 1999121f, Statistics Canada, Direction des études analytiques.
    20. Mahmut Yasar & Roderick Rejesus & Ilhami Mintemur, 2004. "Is there evidence of creative destruction in the Turkish manufacturing sector? Lessons from a cross-industry analysis of aggregate productivity growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(17), pages 1937-1945.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:csg:ajrcau:297. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akira Kinefuchi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ajrccau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.