Risk and Reward of International Investing for U.S. Retirement Savers: Historical Evidence
A crucial decision facing retirement savers is how to allocate their savings across broad investment classes, including the choice of how to divide investments between domestic and foreign holdings. This study investigates whether cross-border investing would have been advantageous to U.S. retirement savers in the past. The analysis is based on empirical evidence on asset returns in eight industrialized countries that have reliable historical time series data on stock and government bond returns. The goal is to determine whether U.S. workers would have obtained higher expected retirement incomes, with smaller risk of catastrophic investment shortfalls, if they invested part of their retirement savings in foreign stocks and bonds without hedging the currency risks of their overseas investments. The results show that workers could indeed have increased their expected pensions if they included unhedged foreign assets in their portfolio and if the portfolio were selected from one on the efficient frontier. Under many naïve investing strategies, however, increasing workers’ allocation to overseas assets will not reduce the risk of catastrophically poor investment performance. The tabulations show that the risk of obtaining a very low pension replacement rate actually increases if workers allocate a sizeable percentage of their savings to overseas investments.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2006|
|Date of revision:||Dec 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (617) 552-1762
Fax: (617) 552-0191
Web page: http://crr.bc.edu/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jeffrey R. Brown & Olivia S. Mitchell & James M. Poterba, .
"The Role of Real Annuities and Indexed Bonds In An Individual Accounts Retirement Program,"
Pension Research Council Working Papers
99-2, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
- Jeffrey R. Brown & Olivia S. Mitchell & James M. Poterba, 2001. "The Role of Real Annuities and Indexed Bonds in an Individual Accounts Retirement Program," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 321-370 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey R. Brown & Olivia S. Mitchell & James M. Poterba, 1999. "The Role of Real Annuities and Indexed Bonds in an Individual Accounts Retirement Program," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 99-18, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Jeffrey R. Brown & Olivia S. Mitchell & James M. Poterba, 1999. "The Role of Real Annuities and Indexed Bonds in an Individual Accounts Retirement Program," NBER Working Papers 7005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gary Burtless, 2000. "Social Security Privatization and Financial Market Risk: Lessons from U.S. Financial History," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 211, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, 09.
- Niko Canner & N. Gregory Mankiw & David N. Weil, 1994.
"An Asset Allocation Puzzle,"
NBER Working Papers
4857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, Rachel A. & Kraussl, Roman, 2007.
"Revisiting the home bias puzzle: Downside equity risk,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1239-1260, November.
- Campbell, Rachel A. & Kräussl, Roman, 2006. "Revisiting the home bias puzzle: Downside equity risk," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/31, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crr:crrwps:wp2006-25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Grzybowski)or (Christopher F Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.