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The Impact of Labour Market Dynamics on the Return–Migration of Immigrants

Author

Listed:
  • Govert E. Bijwaard

    () (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI))

  • Christian Schluter

    () (University of Southampton and Aix Marseille School of Economics)

  • Jackline Wahba

    () (University of Southampton)

Abstract

Using administrative panel data on the entire population of new labour immigrants to The Netherlands, we estimate the causal effects of individual labour market spells on immigration durations using the 'timing-of-events' method. The model allows for correlated unobserved heterogeneity across migration, unemployment and employment processes. We find that unemployment spells increase return probabilities for all immigrant groups, while re-employment spells typically delay returns. The precise quantitative impacts on migration durations depend on both the timing and lengths of the employment and unemployment spells, and are evaluated in several factual and counterfactual examples.

Suggested Citation

  • Govert E. Bijwaard & Christian Schluter & Jackline Wahba, 2012. "The Impact of Labour Market Dynamics on the Return–Migration of Immigrants," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1227, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  • Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:1227
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    File URL: http://www.cream-migration.org/publ_uploads/CDP_27_12.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gibson, John & McKenzie, David, 2011. "The microeconomic determinants of emigration and return migration of the best and brightest: Evidence from the Pacific," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 18-29, May.
    2. Abdurrahman Aydemir & Chris Robinson, 2008. "Global labour markets, return, and onward migration," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 41(4), pages 1285-1311, November.
    3. KIrdar, Murat G., 2009. "Labor market outcomes, savings accumulation, and return migration," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 418-428, August.
    4. Sá, Filipa, 2011. "Does employment protection help immigrants? Evidence from European labor markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 624-642, October.
    5. Galor, Oded & Stark, Oded, 1991. "The probability of return migration, migrants' work effort, and migrants' performance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 399-405, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bijwaard, Govert & van Doeselaar, Stijn, 2012. "The Impact of Divorce on Return-Migration of Family Migrants," IZA Discussion Papers 6852, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    temporary migration; durations; timing of event method; labour market dynamics.;

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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