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A Flexible Test for Present Bias and Time Preferences using Land-Lease Contracts

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Listed author(s):
  • Gautier, Pieter A
  • van Vuuren, Aico

Abstract

When agents have present bias, they discount more between now and the next period than between period t (> 1) and t + 1. How fast the future discount rate (evaluated today) decays is an empirical question. We show that the discount function can be non-parametrically identified with contracts that specify payments that take place at various points in time in the future and which are traded and priced in a competitive market. We use a unique land lease-contract data set for Amsterdam, which has the above properties, to test for present bias in a flexible way. We find no evidence for present bias in this market. Even though we allow for a general-hyperbolic specification (which has exponential discounting as a special case), our estimates converge to an exponential discount function with a corresponding discount rate (in our baseline specification) of 8%.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8512.

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Date of creation: Aug 2011
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8512
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Keywords: discount rate; hedonic estimation; hyperbolic discounting; present bias;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
  • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
  • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

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  1. Hanming Fang & Yang Wang, 2015. "Estimating Dynamic Discrete Choice Models With Hyperbolic Discounting, With An Application To Mammography Decisions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 565-596, 05.
  2. Ariel Rubinstein, 2003. ""Economics and Psychology"? The Case of Hyperbolic Discounting," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(4), pages 1207-1216, November.
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  4. Partha Dasgupta & Eric Maskin, 2005. "Uncertainty and Hyperbolic Discounting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1290-1299, September.
  5. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
  6. Uri Benzion & Amnon Rapoport & Joseph Yagil, 1989. "Discount Rates Inferred from Decisions: An Experimental Study," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(3), pages 270-284, March.
  7. M. Daniele Paserman, 2008. "Job Search and Hyperbolic Discounting: Structural Estimation and Policy Evaluation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(531), pages 1418-1452, 08.
  8. Hanming Fang & Dan Silverman, 2009. "Time-Inconsistency And Welfare Program Participation: Evidence From The Nlsy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1043-1077, November.
  9. Thaler, Richard, 1981. "Some empirical evidence on dynamic inconsistency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 201-207.
  10. Ahumada, Hildegart A. & Garegnani, Maria Lorena, 2007. "Testing hyperbolic discounting in consumer decisions: Evidence for Argentina," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 146-150, April.
  11. David Laibson, 1997. "Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(2), pages 443-478.
  12. Piet M.A. Eichholtz, 1997. "A Long Run House Price Index: The "Herengracht Index", 1628-1973," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 175-192.
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Cited by:

  1. Philippe Bracke & Ted Pinchbeck & James Wyatt, 2014. "The time value of housing: historical evidence from London residential leases," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64504, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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