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What Drives the European Central Bank's Interest-Rate Changes?

  • Aastrup, Morten
  • Jensen, Henrik

We show that the ECB's interest rate changes during 1999-2010 have been mainly driven by changes in economic activity in the Euro area. Changes in actual or expected future HICP inflation play a minor, if any, role.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8160.

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Date of creation: Dec 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8160
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  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
  2. Gerlach, Stefan & Lewis, John, 2010. "The Zero Lower Bound, ECB Interest Rate Policy and the Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  4. Jensen Henrik, 2011. "Estimated Interest Rate Rules: Do they Determine Determinacy Properties?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, May.
  5. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2008. "Labor Markets and Monetary Policy: A New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 13897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Donald W.K. Andrews & Christopher J. Monahan, 1990. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 942, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2004. "The relevance of real-time data in estimating reaction functions for the Euro area," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 56, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
  8. George A. Kahn, 2012. "The Taylor Rule and the Practice of Central Banking," Book Chapters, in: Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn (ed.), The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy, chapter 3 Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
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