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Machine-Learning the Skill of Mutual Fund Managers

Author

Listed:
  • Kaniel, Ron
  • Lin, Zihan
  • Pelger, Markus
  • Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn

Abstract

We show, using machine learning, that fund characteristics can consistently differentiate high from low-performing mutual funds, before and after fees. The outperformance persists for more than three years. Fund momentum and fund flow are the most important predictors of future risk-adjusted fund performance, while characteristics of the stocks that funds hold are not predictive. Returns of predictive long-short portfolios are higher following a period of high sentiment. Our estimation with neural networks enables us to uncover novel and substantial interaction effects between sentiment and both fund flow and fund momentum.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaniel, Ron & Lin, Zihan & Pelger, Markus & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2023. "Machine-Learning the Skill of Mutual Fund Managers," CEPR Discussion Papers 18129, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18129
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    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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