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Efficacité de la politique budgétaire en RDC

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  • Banza Mukalay, M’pya

Abstract

Cette étude fait ressortir l’impact d’une variation des impôts et taxes sur la production nationale et la demande agrégée tout en insistant sur l’influence des ménages non ricardiens. En outre, elle évalue (i) la valeur des multiplicateurs des dépenses et ceux fiscaux ainsi que (ii) les sources des fluctuations de la production. En recourant à l’estimation bayesienne d’un modèle d’équilibre général dynamique et stochastique (DSGE) à l’aide des données trimestrielles de 1998-2018, les résultats démontrent d’un côté qu’une hausse des dépenses publiques accroît significativement la production, la consommation et l’investissement privé–avec un multiplicateur des dépenses évalué en moyenne à 0.36 à court terme–si une grande proportion des dépenses est affectée à l’investissement public. De l’autre côté, une baisse des impôts et taxes a un effet positif et significatif sur la production et la demande globale, avec un multiplicateur fiscal fixé à 0.14 en moyenne et à court terme. Cette efficacité est due au fait que la proportion des ménages non ricardiens (90%) est très élevée, permettant ainsi de stimuler l’économie. En outre, les variations cycliques de la production sont majoritairement expliquées par les chocs d’investissement public et de la taxe sur la consommation.

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  • Banza Mukalay, M’pya, 2021. "Efficacité de la politique budgétaire en RDC," Dynare Working Papers 68, CEPREMAP.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:068
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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