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DIAC-TERM: A Multi-regional Model of the Australian Economy With Migration Detail

Author

Listed:
  • Nhi Tran
  • Louise Roos
  • James Giesecke

Abstract

DIAC-TERM is a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Australia with an emphasis on labour market detail relevant to the analysis of Australia's Net Overseas Migration (NOM) program. Labour demand by industry, region and occupation is determined by the bottom-up multi-regional TERM model. Labour supply by region and occupation is based on a stock/flow dynamic describing disaggregated labour market groups. Between years, sub-populations, defined by age, region, skill, labour force status and visa status, transition between age and visa status categories. Within years, these same sub-populations and the new entrants to the labour market make utility-optimising offers to various labour market activities, such as working in a particular occupation, or leaving the labour force, or moving overseas. We illustrate the use of the model by analysing the consequences of three scenarios involving changes in the NOM program: a once-off increase in intake under the temporary skilled migration program, a permanent increase in the intake under the permanent skilled migration program, and a permanent increase in gross arrivals of non-New Zealand visa categories.

Suggested Citation

  • Nhi Tran & Louise Roos & James Giesecke, 2012. "DIAC-TERM: A Multi-regional Model of the Australian Economy With Migration Detail," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-238, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-238
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2003. "A New Specification of Labour Supply in the MONASH Model with an Illustrative Application," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 36(1), pages 22-40, March.
    2. Mark Horridge, 2011. "The TERM model and its data base," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-219, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    3. Philip Adams & Janine Dixon & James Giesecke & Mark Horridge, 2010. "MMRF: Monash Multi-Regional Forecasting Model: A Dynamic Multi-Regional Model of the Australian Economy," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-223, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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