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La influencia de la especialización productiva y regional en el comportamiento de las exportaciones colombianas del siglo XIX: Metodología Shift Share

Listed author(s):
  • Fernando Barrios Aguirre

    ()

Una de las aproximaciones que nos permite entender la dinámica económica del Siglo XIX en Colombia es por medio de las Exportaciones de este período. Mediante las cifras podemos observar la dinámica de los principales rubros de producción diferentes al oro, así como su dinamismo y contribución al crecimiento de las exportaciones en el siglo XIX: el oro, el tabaco y la quina, y algunos artesanales (intensivos, también, en recursos naturales y trabajo no calificado), como los sombreros de paja, especialmente durante el período de expansión diversificada de exportaciones, 1850-1882. Los movimientos coyunturales así como la inserción de los países de Latinoamérica al proceso capitalista y a los primeros pasos de la globalización nos permiten incidir en la explicación del dinamismo, estancamiento y auge de algunos productos que fueron potencialmente exportables en el siglo XIX. Mediante el escenario de Cambio y Composición se puede observar resultados como la falta de dinamismo de la Quina y el Tabaco en el primer período o las expectativas del periodo dos con la bonanza cafetera y la Quina y la crisis tabacalera de los años 1870 y 1873 que terminó afectando al sector y generando la cifra de dinamismo más baja del periodo de análisis y preparo al café en su expansión del tercer período. De acuerdo con estos resultados, el periodo nos evidencia el camino de una crisis, que realmente se dio entre 1876 y 1877. Algunos aspectos históricos que nos permiten complementar los resultados por países. En efecto se nota el poco dinamismo con Gran Bretaña y Estados Unidos que sucedió en la primera mitad de los años sesenta, el dinamismo de las exportaciones hacia Alemania debido al impulso del mercado de tabaco y el dinamismo en Francia debido al incremento notable que se obtuvo en este periodo. El período dos muestra la recuperación que obtuvo Gran Bretaña en la bonanza quinera, el decaimiento de Alemania debido a la crisis tabacalera y la importancia que va tomando el mercado estadounidense. Muy seguido, el tercer periodo resalta la pérdida del poder comercial de Alemania, pero también un aspecto excepcional el camino de la crisis ****** One approach that allows us to understand the economic dynamics of the nineteenth century in Colombia is through Export in this period. By the figures we can observe the dynamics of the main items of production other than gold, its dynamism and contribution to export growth in the nineteenth century: gold, snuff and “quinine”, and some crafts (intensive also in natural resources and unskilled labor), such as straw hats, especially during the expansion of diversified exports, 1850-1882.Cyclical movements as well as the insertion of Latin American countries to the capitalist process and the first steps of globalization allows us to influence the explanation of the dynamics, stagnation and growth of some potentially exportable products that were in the nineteenth century. By stage of Shift and share results can be seen as a lack of dynamism of the Quinoa and Snuff in the first period or the expectations of the second period with “good coffee and Quinine” and tobacco crisis of the 1870s and 1873 that affecting the sector and completed generating the lowest amount of dynamism of the period of analysis and prepare the coffee in its expansion of the third period. According to these results, the time we clear the path of a crisis that really occurred between 1876 and 1877. Some historical aspects that allow us to complement the results by country. Indeed there is little momentum with the United Kingdom and United States happened in the first half of the sixties, the dynamism of exports to Germany due to the momentum of the market for snuff and dynamism in France due to the significant increase was obtained in this period. The second period shows that the recovery was “good of quinine” in the United Kingdom, the decay of Germany due to the tobacco crisis and the importance that is taking the U.S. market. Very often, the third period highlights the loss of commercial power of Germany, but also a unique aspect of the way the crisis of the eighties that affect all trading partners except the United States.

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File URL: http://revistas.unicartagena.edu.co/index.php/panoramaeconomico/article/view/380
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Paper provided by UNIVERSIDAD DE CARTAGENA in its series REVISTA PANORAMA ECONÓMICO with number 006193.

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Length: 27
Date of creation: 12 Dec 2008
Handle: RePEc:col:000407:006193
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