IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000094/009441.html

Estimating financial institutions� intraday liquidity risk: a Monte Carlo simulation approach

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos L�on

Abstract

The most recent financial crisis unveiled that liquidity risk is far more important and intricate than regulation have conceived. The shift from bank-based to market-based financial systems and from Deferred Net Systems to liquidity-demanding Real-Time Gross Settlement of payments explains some of the shortcomings of traditional liquidity risk management. Although liquidity regulations do exist, they still are in an early stage of development and discussion. Moreover, no all connotations of liquidity are equally addressed. Unlike market and funding liquidity, intraday liquidity has been absent from financial regulation, and has appeared only recently, after the crisis.This paper addresses the measurement of Large-Value Payment System�s intraday liquidity risk. Based on the generation of bivariate Poisson random numbers for simulating the minute-by-minute arrival of received and executed payments, each financial institution�s intraday payments time-varying volume and degree of synchrony (i.e. timing) is modeled. To model intraday payments� uncertainty allows for (i) overseeing participants� intraday behavior; (ii) assessing their ability to fulfill intraday payments at a certain confidence level; (iii) identifying participants non-resilient to changes in payments� timing mismatches; (iv) estimating intraday liquidity buffers. Vis-�-vis the increasing importance of liquidity risk as a source of systemic risk, and the recent regulatory amendments, results are useful for financial authorities and institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos L�on, 2012. "Estimating financial institutions� intraday liquidity risk: a Monte Carlo simulation approach," Borradores de Economia 9441, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:009441
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/be_703.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. World Bank, 2011. "Payment Systems Worldwide - A Snapshot : Outcomes of the Global Payment Systems Survey 2010," World Bank Publications - Reports 12813, The World Bank Group.
    2. Carlos Le�n & Clara Machado & Freddy cepeda & Miguel Sarmiento, 2011. "Too-connected-to-fail Institutions and Payments System�s Stability: Assessing Challenges for Financial Authorities," Borradores de Economia 8155, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Morten L. Bech, 2008. "Intraday liquidity management: a tale of games banks play," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Sep), pages 7-23.
    4. Clara Lia Machado & Carlos Le�n & Miguel Sarmiento & Orlando Chipatecua, 2010. "Riesgo Sist�mico y Estabilidad del Sistema de Pagos de Alto Valor en Colombia: An�lisis bajo Topolog�a de Redes y Simulaci�n de Pagos," Borradores de Economia 7669, Banco de la Republica.
    5. Kenneth R. French & Martin N. Baily & John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane & Douglas W. Diamond & Darrell Duffie & Anil K Kashyap & Frederic S. Mishkin & Raghuram G. Rajan & David S. Scharfstein & Robe, 2010. "The Squam Lake Report: Fixing the Financial System," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9261.
    6. Carlos Leóm & Alejandro Reveiz, 2011. "Montecarlo simulation of long-term dependent processes: a primer," Borradores de Economia 648, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Joaqu�n Bernal R. & Freddy Cepeda L. & Fabio Ortega C, 2011. "Cuantificaci�n de la contribuci�n de las fuentes de liquidez en el Sistema de Pagos de Alto Valor en Colombia: una aproximaci�n preliminar," Borradores de Economia 9197, Banco de la Republica.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos León, 2012. "Estimating financial institutions’ intraday liquidity risk: a Monte Carlo simulation approach," Borradores de Economia 703, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Carlos Le�n, 2012. "Implied probabilities of default from Colombian money market spreads: The Merton Model under equity market informational constraints," Borradores de Economia 10075, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Joaquin Bernal & Freddy Cepeda L. & Fabio Ortega C., 2011. "Cuantificación de la contribución de las fuentes de liquidez en el Sistema de Pagos de Alto Valor en Colombia: una aproximación preliminar," Borradores de Economia 683, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Carlos Castro & Juan Sebastian Ordonez, 2012. "A Network model of systemic risk: identifying the sources of dependence across institutions," Documentos de Trabajo 9651, Universidad del Rosario.
    5. Carlos León & Clara Machado & Andrés Murcia, 2013. "Macro-prudential assessment of Colombian financial institutions’ systemic importance," Borradores de Economia 800, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Carlos León & Clara Machado & Andrés Murcia, 2016. "Assessing Systemic Importance With a Fuzzy Logic Inference System," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1-2), pages 121-153, January.
    7. Kui-Wai Li, 2013. "The US monetary performance prior to the 2008 crisis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3450-3461, August.
    8. Leonard Nakamura, 2014. "Durable Financial Regulation: Monitoring Financial Instruments as a Counterpart to Regulating Financial Institutions," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Wealth and Financial Intermediation and Their Links to the Real Economy, pages 67-88, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Hilscher, Jens & Raviv, Alon, 2014. "Bank stability and market discipline: The effect of contingent capital on risk taking and default probability," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 542-560.
    10. Fredric Mishkin, 2011. "How Should Central Banks Respond to Asset-Price Bubbles? The 'Lean' versus 'Clean' Debate After the GFC," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 59-70, June.
    11. Alessandro Fedele & Luca Panaccione, 2020. "Moral hazard and compensation packages: does reshuffling matter?," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 70(1), pages 223-241, July.
    12. Brown, James R. & Martinsson, Gustav & Thomann, Christian, 2021. "Government lending in a crisis," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    13. Martínez, Constanza & León, Carlos, 2016. "The cost of collateralized borrowing in the Colombian money market: Does connectedness matter?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 193-205.
    14. repec:uii:journl:v:7:y:2015:i:1:p:12-23 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Chia-Chien Chang & Min-Teh Yu, 2018. "Bank Contingent Capital: Valuation and the Role of Market Discipline," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 49-80, August.
    16. Lu, Shan & Zhao, Jichang & Wang, Huiwen & Ren, Ruoen, 2018. "Herding boosts too-connected-to-fail risk in stock market of China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 945-964.
    17. Thomas Willett, 2010. "Some lessons for economists from the financial crisis," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(2), pages 186-208, September.
    18. Rainer Masera, 2011. "Taking the moral hazard out of banking: the next fundamental step in financial reform," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(257), pages 105-142.
    19. Bernd Rudolph, 2013. "Contingent Convertibles (CoCo-Bonds) als Bail-in-Instrumente für Banken," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 65(67), pages 97-122, January.
    20. Martin Hellwig, 2021. "‘Capitalism: what has gone wrong?’: Who went wrong? Capitalism? The market economy? Governments? ‘Neoliberal’ economics? [‘It Takes a Village to Maintain a Dangerous Financial System’, ch. 13]," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 37(4), pages 664-677.
    21. Farmer, J. Doyne & Goodhart, C. A. E. & Kleinnijenhuis, Alissa M., 2021. "Systemic implications of the bail-in design," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111903, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000094:009441. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angelica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.