Evidence of non-Markovian behavior in the process of bank rating migrations
This paper estimates transition matrices for the ratings on financial insti-tutions, using an unusually informative data set. We show that the process of rating migration exhibits significant non-Markovian behavior, in the sense that the transition intensities are affected by macroeconomic and bank spe- cific variables. We illustrate how the use of a continuous time framework may improve the estimation of the transition probabilities. However, the time homogeneity assumption, frequently done in economic applications, does not hold, even for short time intervals. Thus, the information provided by migrations alone is not enough to forecast the future behavior of ratings. The stage of the business cycle should be taken into account, and individual characteristics of banks must be considered as well.
|Date of creation:||26 Jul 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mahlmann, Thomas, 2006. "Estimation of rating class transition probabilities with incomplete data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3235-3256, November.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
- JosÃ© E. GÃ³mez-Gonzalez & Nicholas M. Kiefer, 2009.
"Bank Failure: Evidence From The Colombian Financial Crisis,"
The International Journal of Business and Finance Research,
The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 3(2), pages 15-31.
- Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Kiefer, Nicholas M., 2006. "Bank Failure: Evidence from the Colombia Financial Crisis," Working Papers 06-12, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Larson, C. Erik, 2007. "A simulation estimator for testing the time homogeneity of credit rating transitions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 818-835, December.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Larson, C. Erik, 2006. "A Simulation Estimator for Testing the Time Homogeneity of Credit Rating Transition," Working Papers 06-10, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
- Giovanni Ferri & Li-Gang Liu, 2003. "How Do Global Credit-Rating Agencies Rate Firms from Developing Countries?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 2(3), pages 30-56.
- Liliana Rojas-Suarez, 2001. "Rating Banks in Emerging Markets: What Credit Rating Agencies Should Learn from Financial Indicators," Working Paper Series WP01-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
- Anil Bangia & Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann, 2000. "Ratings Migration and the Business Cycle, With Application to Credit Portfolio Stress Testing," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-26, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
- N. Jonker, 2002. "Credit Ratings of the Banking Sector," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 714, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)