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A likelihood ratio test for stationarity of rating transitions

  • Weißbach, Rafael
  • Walter, Ronja
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    We study the time-stationarity of rating transitions, modelled by a time-continuous discrete-state Markov process and derive a likelihood ratio test. For multiple Markov processes from a multiplicative intensity model, maximum likelihood parameter estimates can be written as martingale transform of the processes, counting transitions between the rating states, so that the profile partial likelihood ratio is asymptotically [chi]2-distributed. An application to an internal rating data set reveals highly significant instationarity.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VC0-4XFY0MT-2/2/050174db5c3b6ada63642fbabb25ae26
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

    Volume (Year): 155 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 2 (April)
    Pages: 188-194

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:155:y:2010:i:2:p:188-194
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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    1. Anil Bangia & Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann, 2000. "Ratings Migration and the Business Cycle, With Application to Credit Portfolio Stress Testing," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-26, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    2. L. Randall Wray & Stephanie Bell, 2004. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Credit and State Theories of Money, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
    3. Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Larson, C. Erik, 2006. "A Simulation Estimator for Testing the Time Homogeneity of Credit Rating Transition," Working Papers 06-10, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    4. Rafael Weißbach & Patrick Tschiersch & Claudia Lawrenz, 2009. "Testing time-homogeneity of rating transitions after origination of debt," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 575-596, June.
    5. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Hansen, Ernst & Lando, David, 2004. "Confidence sets for continuous-time rating transition probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2575-2602, November.
    6. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre & Monteiro, Andre, 2008. "The multi-state latent factor intensity model for credit rating transitions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 399-424, January.
    7. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
    8. Kiefer, Nicholas M., 1985. "Specification diagnostics based on Laguerre alternatives for econometric models of duration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 135-154, April.
    9. Volker Kleff & Martin Weber, 2008. "How Do Banks Determine Capital? Evidence from Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 9, pages 354-372, 08.
    10. Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
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