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Evidence of Non-Markovian Behavior in the Process of Bank Rating Migrations

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  • José E. Gómez-González
  • Nicholas M. Kiefer.

Abstract

This paper estimates transition matrices for the ratings on financial institutions, using an unusually informative data set. We show that the process of rating migration exhibits significant non-Markovian behavior, in the sense that the transition intensi

Suggested Citation

  • José E. Gómez-González & Nicholas M. Kiefer., 2009. "Evidence of Non-Markovian Behavior in the Process of Bank Rating Migrations," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 46(133), pages 33-50.
  • Handle: RePEc:ioe:cuadec:v:46:y:2009:i:133:p:33-50
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
    2. José E. Gómez-Gonzalez & Nicholas M. Kiefer, 2009. "Bank Failure: Evidence From The Colombian Financial Crisis," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 3(2), pages 15-31.
    3. Giovanni Ferri & Li-Gang Liu, 2003. "How Do Global Credit-Rating Agencies Rate Firms from Developing Countries?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 2(3), pages 30-56.
    4. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
    5. Mahlmann, Thomas, 2006. "Estimation of rating class transition probabilities with incomplete data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3235-3256, November.
    6. Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Larson, C. Erik, 2007. "A simulation estimator for testing the time homogeneity of credit rating transitions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 818-835, December.
    7. Liliana Rojas-Suarez, 2001. "Rating Banks in Emerging Markets: What Credit Rating Agencies Should Learn from Financial Indicators," Working Paper Series WP01-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    8. Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
    9. N. Jonker, 2002. "Credit Ratings of the Banking Sector," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 714, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jose E. Gómez & Paola Morales & Fernando Pineda & nzamudgo@banrep.gov.co, 2007. "An Alternative Methodology for Estimating Credit Quality Transition Matrices," Borradores de Economia 478, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Camilla Ferretti & Giampaolo Gabbi & Piero Ganugi & Pietro Vozzella, 2016. "Rating Trajectories and Credit Risk Migration: Evidence for SMEs," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali dises1615, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    3. Gómez-González, José Eduardo & Hinojosa, Inés Paola Orozco, 2010. "Estimation of conditional time-homogeneous credit quality transition matrices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 89-96, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial institutions; macroeconomic variables; capitalization; supervision; transition intensities;

    JEL classification:

    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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