IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000089/020534.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Tax and public expenditure trends Colombia: Lessons for the new administration of 2022-2026

Author

Listed:
  • Sergio Clavijo

Abstract

This document examines the macro-economic performance of Colombia before pandemic (2015-2019) and then assess prospects over 2020-2024, with particular emphasis on fiscal stabilization. We first provide a long-term view and extract some of the fiscal characteristic of Colombia such as: i) directional persistence in tax and spending adjustments; and ii) searching for modular effect (building-blocks), given a complex "political-economy" that hair-cuts the proposed ambitious reforms. Then we turn to carry-out some public finance simulations regarding the required fiscal balance stemming from additional social expenditure and tax revenue efforts. By highlighting public expenditure rigidities, associated mainly with decentralization andmounting pressure for additional social expenditure, we also discuss prospects of the new Fiscal Rule (under Law 2155 of 2021) focusing on anchors related to debt-ratio targets and primary balance requirements. We conclude with some recommendations regarding a "political economy" strategy in order to pursue several structural reforms under the new Administration of 2022-2026, where computing a so-called "Social Betas" could help in setting priorities.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Clavijo, 2022. "Tax and public expenditure trends Colombia: Lessons for the new administration of 2022-2026," Documentos CEDE 20534, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:020534
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstream/handle/1992/63101/dcede2022-44.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Franziska L. Ohnsorge & Kenneth S. Rogoff & M. Ayhan Kose, 2022. "The Aftermath of Debt Surges," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 637-663, August.
    2. Fernando Blanco & Pablo Saavedra & Friederike Koehler-Geib & Emilia Skrok, 2020. "Fiscal Rules and Economic Size in Latin America and the Caribbean," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 34417, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kose M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge Franziska & Sugawara Naotaka, 2022. "A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 233-268, December.
    2. Segura, Anatoli & Villacorta, Alonso, 2023. "Firm-bank linkages and optimal policies after a rare disaster," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 296-322.
    3. João Tovar Jalles & Mr. Paulo A Medas, 2022. "Economic Growth After Debt Surges," IMF Working Papers 2022/159, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Valencia, Oscar & Ulloa-Suarez, Carolina, 2022. "Numerical Compliance with Fiscal Rules in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12405, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Carolina Ulloa-Suarez & Oscar Valencia, 2022. "Do governments stick to their announced fiscal rules? A study of Latin American and the Caribbean countries," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03994711, HAL.
    6. Lucas Argentieri Mariani & Silvia Marchesi, 2023. "International Lending Channel, Bank Heterogeneity and Capital Inflows (Mis)Allocation," Working Papers 523, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    7. Sergio Clavijo, 2022. "Deuda Pública y Economía Política en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 20026, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    8. Ardanaz, Martín & Ulloa-Suarez, Carolina & Valencia, Oscar, 2023. "Why Don't We Follow the Rules? Drivers of Compliance with Fiscal Policy Rules in Emerging Markets," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13110, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Eichengreen, Barry, 2022. "COVID and the outlook for emerging markets," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 820-826.
    10. Ardanaz, Martín & Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Izquierdo, Alejandro, 2023. "Fiscal Rules: Challenges and Reform Opportunities for Emerging Markets," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12691, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Sandra Bernardo & Maria Luísa Vasconcelos & Fátima Rocha, 2024. "The Widening of the North–South Divide: Debt Sustainability in a World Weakened by COVID-19," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-27, February.
    12. Căpraru, Bogdan & Georgescu, George & Sprincean, Nicu, 2022. "Do independent fiscal institutions cause better fiscal outcomes in the European Union?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    13. Eugenia Go & Sam Hill & Maria Hanna Jaber & Yothin Jinjarak & Donghyun Park & Anton Ragos, 2024. "Developing Asia's fiscal landscape and challenges," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 38(1), pages 225-258, May.
    14. Younis, Ijaz & Shah, Waheed Ullah & Hkiri, Besma & Qureshi, Fiza & Longsheng, Cheng, 2023. "Risk co-movements and portfolio strategies between energy, gold and BRICS markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    15. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2022. "On the heterogeneous link between public debt and economic growth," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    16. Gago Andrés & Carozzi Felipe & Bermejo Vicente J. & Abad Jose M., 2023. "Government Turnover and External Financial Assistance," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4655, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    17. Rogoff, Kenneth, 2022. "Issues in the theory of sovereign debt and post-covid workouts," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 804-811.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taxes; Public Goods; Public Debt; Latin America.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H44 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Publicly Provided Goods: Mixed Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000089:020534. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Universidad De Los Andes-Cede (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceandco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.